PEXA Group Ltd (ASX: PXA) shares have raced ahead of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) in 2025.
Shares in the ASX 200 online property exchange network operator closed on Thursday trading for $14.86 apiece, down 1.6% for the day.
Still, that leaves the share price up 15.3% in 2025, or right around twice the 7.6% year to date gains delivered by the benchmark index.
And looking to the year ahead, the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) expect more material outperformance from Pexa shares.
Here's why.
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Pexa shares tipped to outperform
Pexa announced its September quarter (Q1 FY 2026) results on Wednesday, 5 November.
Among the highlights, the company reported a 6% year-on-year increase in total transaction volumes processed through the PEXA Exchange to 1.06 million.
That beat both consensus expectations and Macquarie's own estimates. And it bodes well for the growth outlook for Pexa shares.
According to the broker:
Total market volume lifted +6% in 1Q26 vs pcp (incl transfers +3%, refinances +16%, other +1%) ahead of both 1H26E MRE (-4%) and cons (+1%). Total market share remained flat at 90% (vs 90% 2H25). We revise our total market volume growth to +2.8% in 1H26E
Pexa also reported that its United Kingdom remortgage completion volumes grew 32% at Optima Legal and 22% at Smoove compared to Q1 FY 2025.
Commenting on the UK businesses, Macquarie said:
Completion volumes were robust for Optima (+32% remortgages) and Smoove (+22% remortgages, +15% S&P), ahead of our 1H26E MRE revenue, resulting in our FY26E+ UK revenue lifting by ~1-2%. PXA reiterated plans to onboard NatWest volume in CY26, while also announcing conveyancing firm Muve has signed to use the PXA platform.
UK pricing was set, with our estimates suggesting S&P transactions will be pricing similarly in the UK vs Australia, while remortgages are priced at a significant premium. However, we expect strong price increases over the medium term (+6% vs Australia +2.5%), as the UK market better appreciates the PXA proposition.
Pleasingly, Pexa also reaffirmed full year FY 2026 guidance for revenue in the range of $405 million to $430 million.
Management is forecasting earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin of 32% to 35%, while the company expects to achieve FY 2026 net profit after tax (NPAT) between $5 million and $15 million.
Macquarie noted:
Group revenue of $405-430m (vs MRE $426m, VA cons $419m); Group Operating EBITDA margin 32-35% (vs MRE 32.0%, cons 33.3%); Group NPAT of $5-15m (vs MRE $13.7m, cons $11.4m), Group capex at $60-65m (vs MRE $60m, cons $62m).
Connecting the dots, Macquarie reiterated its outperform rating on Pexa shares.
"Any formal commitments from additional Tier 1 lenders are likely to incentivise the other four Tier 1 lenders to onboard with PXA quickly, driving rapid market share gains," the broker concluded.
Macquarie has a $19.10 12-month price target on Pexa shares. That represents a potential upside of 28.5% from Thursday's closing price.
