Monadelphous Group Ltd (ASX: MND) shares have been smashing the market over the past 12 months.
During this time, the ASX 200 stock has risen over 100% to currently trade at $29.72.
Despite this incredible rise, this diversified services company has just received an upgrade from analysts at Bell Potter.
Let's see what the broker is saying about this high-flying stock.
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What is the broker saying?
Bell Potter has been impressed with the company's performance in FY 2026. It highlights that Monadelphous has won significantly more contracts than it was expecting.
Commenting on recent developments, the broker said:
Since we last published in November 2025, MND has maintained its robust contract award momentum, securing work packages (EC and M&I) valued at ~$835m, taking FY26TD contract award value to ~$1,400m (compared with ~$1,550m in the pcp). Notable contract awards include: the ~$250m multidisciplinary construction work package for Rio Tinto's Brockman Syncline 1 iron ore development (awarded 22 December 2025); and the $300m 5-year maintenance services contract with Rio Tinto for its iron ore operations in the Pilbara region, WA (awarded 14 January 2026).
Given EC and M&I contract terms are generally greater than one year, we anticipate progressively larger annual contract awards over FY24 to FY26TD to imply a positive revenue growth trajectory over FY26-28. For context, MND was awarded contracts valued at ~$1,650m in FY23, $2,090m in FY24, $2,280m in FY25 and $1,405m in FY26TD (~$2,600m annualised).
ASX 200 stock upgraded
According to the note, in response to these contract wins, Bell Potter has lifted its earnings estimates through to FY 2028.
This has seen the broker upgrade its shares to a buy rating with an improved price target of $33.00 (from $24.00).
Based on its current share price of $29.72, this implies potential upside of 11% for investors over the next 12 months.
In addition, Bell Potter is expecting a dividend yield of approximately 3% in FY 2026 from the ASX 200 stock, which boosts the total potential return to 14%.
Commenting on its buy recommendation, the broker said:
MND's contract award streak has exceeded our expectation, reflecting a stronger development pipeline in the Mining and Energy sectors than we had anticipated. We believe MND has won more than its fair share of work, reinforcing the company's position as a market leader with robust blue chip customer relationships. Importantly, MND's current orderbook builds a strong foundation for earnings growth in the near-term that is not reflected in consensus expectations.
