Big returns could be on the cards for buyers of Syrah Resources Ltd (ASX: SYR) shares.
That's the view analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), which are feeling very bullish about the ASX mining stock.
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What is the broker saying about this ASX mining stock?
Macquarie notes that the graphite producer released its third quarter update. And while its production fell short of expectations, it was still a significant quarter on quarter increase. It said:
The Balama operation continued its ramp up in the 3QCY25 with graphite production of 25.7kt. While it was 35% below VA estimates (small samples) the output was ~300% higher QoQ as operation was resumed in the late 2QCY25. SYR commented that its production was impacted by oxidised ROM following a period of operation suspension, which is a one-off issue during the ramp up. SYR plans to maintain this campaign mining mode while waiting for improved market conditions.
The broker also highlights that Syrah is uniquely positioned to benefit from new Chinese export controls. It said:
Beijing recently issued an announcement and introduced new export controls on graphite anode materials (from 8 Nov 2025). We believe this restriction is a positive event for SYR as the company is uniquely positioned, with a natural graphite operations (~350ktpa capacity) and an 11.25ktpa AAM Vidalia facility.
Big potential returns
According to the note, in response to the update, the broker has retained its outperform rating and 70 cents price target on the ASX mining stock.
Based on its current share price of 34 cents, this implies potential upside of more than 100% over the next 12 months.
To put this into context, a $5,000 would turn into over $10,000 by this time next year if Macquarie is on the money with its recommendation.
Commenting on its bullish view of the stock, the broker said:
Outperform: The graphite market could be is bifurcating with the introduction of anti-dumping duties and China's tightening control on exports, a tailwind for SYR. The Balama production ramp up and Vidalia qualification update are a key near-term focus.
Valuation: Our target price is unchanged to A$0.70/sh. Catalyst: Production growth at Balama and Vidalia ramp-up are key near-term catalysts for SYR.
Overall, this could make Syrah Resources worth considering if you are looking to add some mining sector exposure to a balanced ASX share portfolio.
