The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX:XJO) insurance sector comprises several large and mature stocks with strong annual gains and potential for growth.
Take QBE Insurance (ASX: QBE) for example. The Australian general insurance company's shares have climbed 18.83% over the past year.
Meanwhile Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) shares have climbed 8.62% over the 12 month period and Suncorp Group Limited (ASX: SUN) shares have risen 10.87%.
The largest annual gain came from Steadfast Group Ltd (ASX: SDF) which climbed 20.51% over the past year, although this was significantly boosted by a 4.9% price surge on Tuesday.
For context, the ASX 200 has risen 9.62% over the same 12-month period, which means all but IAG shares have outpaced the index.
But the question is, which is the favourite?
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The ASX 200 insurance share with the largest upside
In a recent note to investors, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has highlighted its preference for Steadfast Group shares. It's the only pick of the four ASX 200 insurance companies, mentioned above, that the broker has an outperform rating on.
Macquarie analysts have a $7.00 target price on the shares, which is just shy of the $6.64 trading price at the time of writing. Over the next 12 months it represents another potential 5.4% upside for investors, at the time of writing.
The update comes as part of the brokers review of Farm Package, which is the fifth-largest Commercial Lines production in Australia and represents a significant amount of insurer business.
Due to the lack of competitive tension and regulatory attention, Farm Package should continue to support profitability for IAG and QBE in FY26.
Although the broker notes that "unlike other major products for retail customers, the use of broker platforms is virtually non-existent for Farm Package, making placement extremely manual. We understand Steadfast continues to be in the process of incorporating Farm Package into its SCTP placement platform, which may reduce distribution costs, but we believe it remains more than 18 months away before going live."
It adds that the reason why technology has been slow to construct in the product is because this package has multiple products and also, pricing across all brands differs.
As with other products, SDF's scale means new technology could change industry profitability, but also allow new entrants into the market, which would be the primary threat as the product looks to make money for the first time in a decade.
What does Macquarie say about the other ASX 200 insurers?
The broker has a neutral rating on IAG, Suncorp and QBE shares with target prices of $9.10, $20.60 and $23.30 respectively.
At the time of writing, Macquarie's target price represents a potential 11.1% upside for IAG.
For Suncorp, the target price represents a potential upside of 2.0% from the $20.19 share price at the close of the ASX on Tuesday.
For QBE, Macquarie's target price represents 13.9% potential upside for investors from the $20.45 share price at the time of writing.
