Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) shares closed up 0.24% on Thursday.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) insurance giant ended the day changing hands for $8.36 apiece.
As for rival Aussie insurance company QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE), its shares closed down 0.23% yesterday. QBE shares closed the day trading for $21.36 each.
Taking a step back, QBE shares have gained 33% over the past 12 months. Over this time, QBE also paid out 94 cents a share in partly franked dividends. At Thursday's closing price, this sees the ASX 200 insurer trading on a partly franked trailing dividend yield of 4.4%.
IAG shares are up 11% over the past 12 months. During the year, IAG paid out 31 cents per share in partly franked dividends. At yesterday's closing price, IAG shares trade on a partly franked trailing dividend yield of 3.7%.
Now, that's the year gone by.
Here's how the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) rate the ASX 200 insurers for the year ahead.
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IAG shares or QBE shares?
In Macquarie's new 'Australian General Insurance' report, the broker noted that Australian-listed insurers had around a 47.6% share of Australian Business Package gross written premium (GWP) in FY 2025. That's up 1.0% over the last 12 months. But it's down some 66.5% from FY 2017.
Macquarie estimates that Business Packages account for around 3.8% of the GWP for IAG shares and around 3.4% for QBE.
As for the broker's broader Aussie insurance market outlook, the report stated:
We see Australian insurers holding their share for Business Packages in FY26, but as agentic AI use becomes more mainstream, distribution, pricing and comparability pose a medium-term threat to one of the few commercial lines products in Australia with earnings consistency
As for Macquarie's expectations for IAG shares, the broker has a neutral rating with a 12-month price target of $9.10. That represents a potential upside of almost 9% from Thursday's closing price.
Macquarie said short-term risks to this outlook are "more frequent catastrophes, higher reinsurance costs and higher-for-longer claims inflation."
In the long term, Macquarie noted:
The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures.
Turning to QBE shares, Macquarie also has a neutral rating on the ASX 200 stock, with a 12-month price target of $23.30. That also equates to a potential upside of 9% from yesterday's close.
The broker said short-term risks to this outlook are, "Changes to bond yields / global catastrophes / movements in the global premium rate environment."
The broker said that long-term risks for QBE are identical to those that could hamper IAG shares.
