S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares have delivered a very pleasing return for investors. In 2025 to date, the ASX 200 has risen by 10%, plus dividends. That's an above-average return for the Australian share market and the year hasn't even finished yet.
The return has been driven by a few of Australia's largest businesses including Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS), Brambles Ltd (ASX: BXB), Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) and Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG).
Of course, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. It'd take a very optimistic investor to suggest those ASX blue-chip shares are going to rise another 20% over the next 12 months.
Investors may also be thinking of getting ahead of a potential Santa rally. According to the data of the last 50 years as of 2024, ASX 200 shares have averaged a 1.78% return in December, compared to an average monthly return of 1.36% for the other 11 months.
But, the Santa rally doesn't always happen. The strong performance of the share market and current higher valuation should be on investors' minds when considering whether to invest in ASX 200 shares.
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Points for being patient
The share market is largely driven by two factors – earnings and how much investors are willing to pay for those earnings.
While earnings have crept higher in the last year for plenty of businesses, it isn't profit growth that has driven the market. Investors are seemingly more willing to pay a higher price/earnings (P/E) ratio than last year.
There is no rule that says we have to invest our money at the current valuations if we don't want to.
Warren Buffett once made a baseball analogy about investing, talking how former baseball batting star Ted Williams would wait until he saw a good delivery to swing:
If he waited for the pitch that was really in his sweet spot, he would bat .400. If he had to swing at something on the lower corner, he would probably bat .235.
The trick in investing is just to sit there and watch pitch after pitch go by and wait for the one right in your sweet spot. And if people are yelling, 'Swing, you bum!,' ignore them.
We just don't know when pessimism will next hit the market. It could be next week, it could be December, or it could take considerably longer.
But, we may not necessarily need to wait to invest.
There are always long-term opportunities
Just because an individual ASX 200 share, a sector, or even the whole share market is valued highly doesn't automatically mean there are no opportunities.
Share prices are always changing and that means the opportunity on offer is shifting.
An individual business could still be significantly undervalued. That could be one that delivers strong long-term earnings growth, more than justifying today's valuation, even if it's quite high.
Or, the market may be undervaluing an ASX 200 share's near-term earnings (or underappreciating its net asset value (NAV) ).
Currently, I'm looking at ASX 200 shares like Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG) and Pinnacle Investment Management Group Ltd (ASX: PNI) as opportunities, as well as other share ideas.
