The Aussie Broadband Ltd (ASX: ABB) share price has risen more than 20% in just two months, as the chart below shows. After such a strong run, it's time to ask if the ASX telco share is headed even higher or whether it has run too far.
While Aussie Broadband is only a fraction of the size of Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS), it could be capable of producing stronger returns because it's much earlier on with its growth journey.
The broker Macquarie has examined the challenger telco brands of Aussie Broadband and Superloop Ltd (ASX: SLC) and determined that Aussie Broadband is the more appealing option of the two heading into AGM season. Let's take a look at why.
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Positive reasons to like Aussie Broadband shares
Macquarie said that Aussie Broadband's product is better placed to report a strong customer growth update at its annual general meeting (AGM) because its "premium brand is better oriented to the profile of customers churning" from 50mb per second, which is the main contestable churn from the NBN speed tier changes in September 2025, according to Macquarie. Telstra's market share in this area is around 40%.
Macquarie noted that Aussie Broadband has the best net promoter score (NPS – customer satisfaction) in the industry.
The broker also suggests that wholesale upside exists for Aussie Broadband too, though it currently has conservative forecasts until it receives greater disclosure around the growth trajectory and plan for customer growth. But, it sees "material upside as longer-dated" in FY27 and onwards.
Macquarie said that the ASX telco share's balance sheet is under-utilised, with potential inorganic growth (acquisitions) or a capital return for owners of Aussie Broadband shares. Macquarie thinks it's more likely that Aussie Broadband will return capital to shareholders.
Is the share price attractive?
Macquarie has an outperform rating on Aussie Broadband shares, implying it thinks it's a buy.
The broker has a price target of $6.35 on the business. A price target is where an analyst thinks the share price will be in 12 months from the time of the investment call. Therefore, the broker is suggesting the Aussie Broadband share price could rise by close to 10% over the next year.
Macquarie is now estimating that Aussie Broadband could deliver an underlying net profit of $50.9 million in FY26, $67.3 million in FY27, and $87.9 million in FY28. If that happens, it could deliver profit growth of 72% between FY26 and FY28.
