The performance of True North Copper Ltd (ASX: TNC) shares over the past year has been underwhelming to say the least, but the analyst team at Morgans is tipping that's about to change.
They have just issued a new research note on the company, assigning a speculative buy rating and a very bullish share price target, which I'll get to shortly.
So what's getting them all excited?
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Queensland projects progressing well
True North has two projects in development: Mt Oxide and Cloncurry, both in Queensland.
Just this week, the company announced further high-grade copper and gold exploration results at Cloncurry, building on the mineral resource announced in September of 152,000 tonnes of copper and 171,000 ounces of gold.
True North is expecting to complete a prefeasibility study on the Cloncurry project later this year.
The company said the recent drilling results showed the potential for further near-mine extension opportunities.
The company added:
Further drilling in late 2026 and into 2027 will target near mine exploration and resource extension opportunities, with the potential to grow the resource and further optimise value across the broader Cloncurry Copper Project.
Broker likes what it sees
Morgans said True North was well-positioned, with the region likely poised for a wave of consolidation.
Long fragmented between underutilised mills and mill-constrained juniors, Cloncurry is now seeing long-anticipated consolidation gain momentum. Evolution Mining has agreed to acquire Carnaby Resources ($213m, scheme), citing latent mill capacity at Ernest Henry. Austral Resources Australia has beaten Larvotto Resources to a binding scheme for Hammer Metals ($80.7m), and AIC Mines has agreed to acquire Materra Metals (Mt Cuthbert) for $120m (~$488/t contained Cu). We see this as supportive for TNC. It validates the strategic value of Cloncurry copper gold inventory, provides fresh regional transaction benchmarks and highlights the scarcity of what TNC already holds: resources on granted mining leases alongside permitted processing infrastructure.
Morgans said the company had plenty of options for how to develop its projects, given the available infrastructure in the region.
The broker has a price target of $1.31 on True North shares, compared to the current price of 33.5 cents.
If achieved, this would constitute a 291% increase in value.
Morgans said further:
We view TNC as a compelling emerging copper opportunity, anchored by its flagship Mt Oxide project, with the Cloncurry Copper Project (CCP) providing a complementary near-term development pathway on granted leases with existing infrastructure. Further Mt Oxide drilling and the CCP prefeasibility study in late 2026 are among multiple catalysts over the next 12 months that could build scale, de-risk the portfolio and narrow TNC's valuation discount to peers.
True North Copper is valued at $62.9 million.
