Up 23% this year, should I buy Woodside shares today?

A leading analyst provides his outlook for Woodside's outperforming shares.

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Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares are slipping today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stock closed on Friday trading for $29.03. In early afternoon trade on Monday, shares are swapping hands for $28.71 apiece, down 1.1%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.1% at this same time.

Taking a step back, Woodside shares have strongly outperformed the benchmark index in 2026, fuelled by rising global oil and gas prices.

Down 1.4% over the weekend, the Brent crude oil price currently stands at US$79.47.

While that's down some 33% from the 29 April peak, the oil price remains up more than 30% year to date amid ongoing negotiations to end the Middle East conflict and the resulting shipping restrictions in the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Spurred by higher oil prices and its own operational successes, Woodside stock has leapt 21.3% year to date, compared to the 1.3% gains delivered by the ASX 200 over this same period.

And we haven't included the 83.5 cents per share fully-franked dividend that Woodside paid to eligible shareholders on 27 March. Adding in the 81.8 cent per share interim dividend the oil and gas giant paid on 24 September, and this ASX 200 energy stock trades on a 5.8% fully-franked trailing dividend yield.

Which brings us back to our headline question.

An oil refinery worker stands in front of an oil rig with his arms crossed and a smile on his face.

Image source: Getty Images

Should I buy Woodside shares today?

Peak Asset Management's Niv Dagan recently analysed the outlook for the ASX oil and gas stock (courtesy of The Bull).

"Operationally, the energy giant continues to execute strongly," Dagan said.

Explaining his hold recommendation on Woodside shares, Dagan said:

It achieved an 11% increase in the average realised price of a barrel of oil equivalent in the first quarter of 2026 when compared to the fourth quarter of financial year 2025. However, quarterly production fell by 8% due to seasonal weather events.

The Scarborough energy project was 96% complete and remains on track for first LNG cargo in the fourth quarter of 2026. Other major projects remain on budget and on schedule.

What's the latest from the ASX 200 oil and gas stock?

Woodside shares created a buzz last Monday following media speculations that the company could be a takeover target for global energy giant Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM).

This came after sources, who wished to remain anonymous, revealed that Exxon had been holding early-stage internal discussions on the potential to acquire Woodside.

However, Woodside's management poured cold water on those rumours, stating:

Woodside is not aware of any proposal and confirms it is not in discussions regarding a potential transaction with Exxon Mobil Corporation.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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