Down 20% this year, are Premier Investments shares a buy according to Macquarie?

Is this a buy the dip opportunity?

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Key points

  • Premier Investments reported a modest 0.9% sales increase for FY25, with strong performance from Peter Alexander but weaker-than-expected results from Smiggle.
  • Macquarie Group revised its price target for Premier Investments to $20.80. 
  • The company's share decline of 20% year to date suggests limited upside. 

Premier Investments Ltd (ASX: PMV) shares are a popular investment among ASX retail investors. 

Premier Investments owns a range of well-known brands, including Peter Alexander and Smiggle.

It also holds an investment in Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG).

The ASX 200 retail giant has fallen 20% for the year to date. 

Investors may be wondering whether the current share price represents an attractive opportunity. 

Let's find out if the ASX retail stock is a good buy today.

How did Premier Investments perform in FY25?

Last week, Premier Investments announced its FY25 results. 

On 26 September, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) released a new research note which reviewed the result and provided its view on the investment opportunity. 

Premier Investments reported a 0.9% sales increase to $812.2 million, driven by a 7.7% increase in Peter Alexander sales and a 10.7% increase in Smiggle sales. 

Macquarie said Peter Alexander outperformed its expectations, while Smiggle underperformed its expectations. 

Macquarie attributed Peter Alexander's strong performance to strong growth both in-store and online, and the expansion of the outlet store channel.

In FY25, Peter Alexander opened six new stores, relocated/expanded nine existing stores, and closed one store.

The broker attributed Smiggle's weak performance to continued exposure to "consumers facing cost-of-living pressures in all global markets."

In FY25, Smiggle opened 3 stores and closed 16, with the majority of closures occurring in Europe. 

In its FY25 result, the Premier Investments board declared a fully franked final dividend of 50 cents per share. This is down from 70 cents per share a year earlier.

Is Premier Investments a buy?

Following the result, Macquarie revised its price target for Premier Investments shares. 

The broker cut its price target by 4.6% from $21.80 to $20.80, citing "FY26E revisions & mark-to-market of BRG stake + SOTP peerset". 

Macquarie reduced its earnings forecast by -1%, +3% and +1% in FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively. 

"BRG stake" refers to the company's investment in Breville, which is measured based on the Breville share price. In FY25, Breville shares declined due to their heavy exposure to tariffs. 

"SOTP peerset" refers to how Premier Investment shares are valued relative to their peers, which include Accent Group (ASX: AX1), Myer Holdings Ltd (ASX: MYR), and Universal Store Ltd (ASX: UNI).

Summarising its investment thesis and recommendation, Macquarie said:

Neutral, but with improving risk/reward symmetry + upside-catalyst rich FY26e. Macro tailwinds to Australian consumption balanced and growth in Peter Alexander offset by headwinds to Smiggle from trading weakness.

Given that Premier Investment shares closed at $19.62 on Friday, this suggests returns will be relatively flat in the year ahead, when also factoring in the dividend.

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group, Myer, Premier Investments, and Universal Store. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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