Do Nick Scali or Temple & Webster shares have more upside?

An expert has suggested one stock will significantly outperform the other.

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Key points

  • Over the past 5 years, Nick Scali and Temple & Webster have significantly outperformed the All Ords Index.
  • Despite Nick Scali's strong start in FY26, Macquarie's price target is below its current share price. 
  • Macquarie rates Temple & Webster as more attractively valued than Nick Scali, expecting 28% revenue growth in FY26 and a 28% upside.

ASX furniture retailers Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK) and Temple & Webster Ltd (ASX: TPW) have been among the best S&P/ASX All Ords (ASX: XAO) stocks in recent times. 

Over just about any time period, both companies have beaten the market.

Over the past 5 years, Nick Scali shares have soared 184%, and Temple & Webster is not far behind with a 124% rise. 

In the past year, Nick Scali has risen 49%, compared to a 106% increase for Temple & Webster. 

For reference, the All Ords Index is up 50% over 5 years, and 7% over the past year. 

As consumer discretionary stocks, both Nick Scali and Temple & Webster are likely beneficiaries of interest rate cuts. 

This suggests that, despite their record run, these two historically market-beating stocks may continue to outperform. 

With further rate cuts projected, investors may be considering an investment in Nick Scali or Temple & Webster. 

So, which is the better buy today?

Battle of the ASX furniture retailers

In its post-earnings season research note, Emerging Leaders Reporting season wrap & best picks, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) revised its price target on both companies. 

Commenting on Nick Scali, Macquarie highlighted that the company had started FY26 strongly, with like-for-like written sales orders up 7.2% in July. 

Macquarie also said:

ANZ sales growth expected in 1Q26e and momentum over 2H25 in ANZ (orders were -8.5% in Jan-25) demonstrates an improving consumer demand environment and still leave us incrementally positive on the NCK outlook into FY26e.

However, the broker's price target of $21.90 is above the current share price of $24.13, suggesting the company is not attractively valued at today's price. 

Instead, Macquarie considers Temple & Webster to be more attractively valued given its current share price and outlook. 

The broker expects sales momentum to improve in FY26, driven by a 'catalyst rich' next 12 months driven by interest rate cuts and improving consumer demand. 

While Macquarie acknowledged its steep valuation, it suggested it was justified:

Whilst TPW appears expensive, even to longer-term forward-looking investors (37.2x FY28E P/E) – accelerating earnings momentum and a currently underutilised balance sheet suggest upside.

Macquarie expects Temple & Webster to deliver 28% revenue growth in FY26. 

As a result, Macquarie has placed a target price of $31.30 on the ASX furniture retailer.

Given that shares closed at $24.43 on Friday, this suggests 28% upside from here.

Foolish Takeaway

Nick Scali and Temple & Webster have been among the best-performing ASX All Ords shares over just about any period. With further rate cuts projected, both companies are well-positioned to deliver strong growth. However, at today's share prices, Macquarie is projecting Temple & Webster shares to materially outperform Nick Scali over the next 12 months.

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nick Scali and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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