The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price and profit has certainly seen its ups and downs over the last few years, as the chart below shows. But that's the past, it's the future that matters now.
Resource prices can be challenging to predict, but there's a lot more visibility about what a business is planning to do with its projects and operations.
I'm going to look at what might happen with the ASX mining share by 2028 and what its financials could look like.
Projected financials
The recently-reported 2025 financial year result was not the strongest year of this decade so far, and the 2028 financial year is not projected to be particularly strong either.
Broker UBS forecasts that the ASX mining share could deliver US$48.9 billion of revenue in FY28, leading to US$19.6 billion of operating profit (EBIT) and US$9.6 billion of net profit after tax (NPAT).
Those numbers could mean US$1.90 of earnings per share (EPS) and a dividend per share of US 95 cents. These numbers are a little stronger than what's projected for FY26 and FY27.
However, the balance sheet could carry more debt – it's projected to have net debt of US$21.5 billion.
The iron ore price could play a critical role in the company's financials and the BHP share price over the next few years. UBS is currently forecasting an iron ore price of US$90 per tone during 2026 and US$88 per tonne in 2027 as Simandou commences and ramps up. Simandou is a very large iron ore mining project in Africa, it's partially owned by ASX mining share Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO).
Operational changes
One of the biggest changes that shareholders will (hopefully) see is that in three years' time, the potash project Jansen will be operational. Its start-up is expected in mid-2027 and BHP also told investors that stage 2 of Jansen is proceeding, but the company has decided to push back the start up by around two years. It will continue to do the underground development work for stage 2, according to BHP.
The mining business is working on growing its copper production across its portfolio, with work on existing projects like Escondida and Copper South Australia, while also investing in new projects. I think copper could become increasingly important for the BHP share price as time goes on. Regarding the copper project Vicuna, UBS wrote:
Vicuna is perhaps the best / largest new copper discovery in over a decade, but will be complicated, as it straddles both Chile and Argentina, faces topographical challenges, elevation, unique ore characterisations, etc. BHP are comforted in their decades long operational history in Chile, and their Vicuna JV partner Lunding Mining's decades long history in Argentina. The JV needs to spend ~$400m (100% basis) by midCY26 to secure RIGI backing
UBS also noted that BHP is working on growing its iron ore production. The broker said:
BHP has approved the investment in car-dumper #6 for US$0.9bn that will underpin >305Mtpa production from 4Q-FY28, and especially through a period of heavy cardumper maintenance from FY29. In our opinion, the 6th car-dumper also allows BHP to creep WAIO shipments medium/long-term to ~330Mt though further investment will be needed (eg in mines/ port) so we have not yet factored this in our forecasts.
BHP share price valuation
If BHP trades on the same multiple of next-year earnings in three years' time as it does at the time of writing, the BHP share price could trade at close to $43, but that assumes UBS' earnings projections come true.
