BHP shares at 52-week high: Here's why I'm not buying

Is it too late to hop on this speeding train?

| More on:
Happy miner with his hand in the air.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

It's been a very pleasant week, and indeed month, for BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares. Today, the mining giant has lost a little bit of steam, down 0.8% at the time of writing to $48.60 a share. But even so, the Big Australian remains up a happy 9.54% over the past month alone. That gain stretches to a confident 20.8% over the past 12 months.

Just last week, this momentum resulted in BHP shares hitting a new 52-week high. Thursday's session saw this mining stock clock $49.75 a share, its highest price in over two years.

As one of the ASX's largest companies, this share price appreciation has been a boon to anyone holding an ASX index fund, and, by extension, anyone with a superannuation fund (which is almost all of us).

It's not hard to see why investors are excited about BHP at the moment. Commodities across the board have been rallying in recent months. We've seen fresh new highs after fresh new highs for gold and silver, while copper has been burning higher too. It's the latter material that probably has investors excited over BHP shares today. Although iron ore remains BHP's primary resource, it has been expanding its copper operations rapidly in recent years. With copper up close to 35% since the middle of last year, it's no surprise BHP shares are capturing investors' attention.

But despite the impressive run that BHP has been on over the past 12 months, I'm not considering jumping on this bandwagon and buying BHP shares today.

Here's why I'm not buying BHP shares today

Mining shares like BHP tend to be highly cyclical. Their share prices tend to follow the price curves of the commodities that they mine and process. BHP is no different. This is a company that has been as low as $33.25 and as high as $49.75 a share over just the past year alone.

This is a familiar pattern in this company's history. Back in July of 2007, for example, BHP was going for about $32 a share. By October of that year, those same shares hit $39 each, before dropping back to $30 by early 2008.

Sure, if you time these swings correctly, there can be a lot of money to make. But that is far easier said than done. I would rather buy shares of companies that don't undergo these rather vicious pricing cycles. It's just less stressful. Even if I did have a penchant for buying mining companies, I would not be doing so after a big gain as we've seen over the past year. Perhaps BHP shares go higher from here. But buying in after such a long run-up rarely ends well for investors.

This cyclicality also makes it very difficult for mining companies to compound their earnings over time and generate the massive wealth appreciation that the world's best stocks are known for.

So all in all, there's nothing I'm finding tempting about BHP shares when they are close to their new 52-week high today. There are simply better places to put your money, at least in my view.

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Resources Shares

Miner and company person analysing results of a mining company.
Resources Shares

South32 shares rocket 70% higher. Is it too late to buy?

Here's what analysts expect from the miner this year.

Read more »

Two workers working with a large copper coil in a factory.
Resources Shares

Capstone Copper shares in a slump despite good news out of Chile

Strike action has come to an end.

Read more »

A magnifying glass on wooden blocks spelling out bonds.
Resources Shares

Forget bonds, metals are now the 'essential hedges': experts

Global asset manager, Sprott, says the global debasement trade will keep pushing up demand for metals.

Read more »

asx share price fall represented by red downward arrow
Resources Shares

Silver's record run hits turbulence as prices slide 13%

Silver pulls back sharply after record highs as speculative positions unwind and volatility spikes.

Read more »

A brightly coloured graphic with a silver square showing the abbreviation Li and the word Lithium to represent lithium ASX shares such as Core Lithium with small coloured battery graphics surrounding
Resources Shares

Up 288% since April, are Mineral Resources shares still a good buy today?

A leading investment analyst offers his outlook for Mineral Resources shares.

Read more »

A miner stands in front of an excavator at a mine site.
Capital Raising

Why this ASX uranium miner's shares are frozen today

This ASX uranium miner is halted as the market waits for further clarity.

Read more »

Happy miner with his arms folded.
Resources Shares

$5,000 invested in BHP shares 5 years ago is now worth…

The difference is huge!

Read more »

A woman stands in a field and raises her arms to welcome a golden sunset.
Resources Shares

Why 2026 will be the year of ASX resources and commodities – Expert

Do you have exposure to these sectors?

Read more »