ASX 200 mining shares are in the green on Friday, with materials leading the 11 market sectors with a 1.44% gain.
Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 0.77% at the time of writing.
With earnings season behind us, let's see how top broker Macquarie is rating some of the major ASX 200 mining shares.
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What Macquarie thinks of these 3 ASX 200 mining shares
BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)
BHP reported revenue of US$51.262 billion for FY25, down 8% on FY24, mainly due to lower iron ore and coal prices.
Underlying profit attributable to BHP shareholders was US$10.157 billion, down 26% on FY24.
BHP declared a final dividend of 60 US cents per share to be paid on 25 September.
The full-year dividend was US$1.10 per BHP share, which was 25% lower than FY24.
This reflected a payout ratio of 60%.
Macquarie's verdict
The BHP share price is currently $40.80, up 1.3%.
Macquarie has a neutral rating on BHP shares with a 12-month price target of $43.
This implies a potential 5% upside from here for the ASX 200's largest mining share.
Fun fact: You may already know that BHP's Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) division is the world's lowest-cost iron ore producer, but did you know that BHP is also now the world's biggest copper producer, too?
Here is BHP's outlook on iron ore for FY26 and its outlook on copper for FY26.
Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG)
Fortescue reported a 15% decline in revenue to US$15.5 billion for FY25.
The miner's reported net profit after tax (NPAT) was US$3.4 billion, down 41% from FY24.
The Fortescue board declared a final dividend of 60 cents per share, down 32.6% from FY24.
The miner will pay the dividend on 26 September.
The full-year dividend was $1.10 per share, down 44% on FY24, and representing a 65% payout ratio.
In its post-results note, Macquarie flagged the payout ratio as being "below our annualised 70% expectation".
The broker added:
Although FMG delivered in-line financials, a 65% pay-out ratio, in our view, indicates management and the board see risk in the capex and price outlook.
Macquarie's verdict
The Fortescue share price is currently $18.83, up 1%.
Macquarie has an underperform rating on Fortescue shares.
The broker reduced its 12-month price target by 3% to $15.50.
This implies a potential 18% downside from here for this ASX 200 mining share.
Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)
The market's largest ASX 200 gold miner reported a 30% increase in revenue to $6.4 billion in FY25.
This was driven by a 29% increase in Northern Star's average realised gold price to $3,922 per ounce.
The ASX 200 gold mining share will pay a dividend of 30 cents per share, up 20% on FY24, on 25 September.
The full-year dividend was a record 55 cents per share, up 37% on FY24, and representing a 20% payout ratio.
Macquarie's verdict
The Northern Star Resources share price is currently $21.09, up 1%.
Macquarie has an outperform rating on this ASX gold mining share.
The broker reduced its 12-month price target by 4% to $24.
This suggests a potential 14% increase from here for this ASX 200 mining share.
