Own BHP shares? Here is the mining giant's outlook on copper in FY26

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares closed 0.49% lower on Thursday at $43.01 while the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) rose 0.22%.

Investors know BHP as a global iron ore giant, but as we reported this week, the miner is also now the world's largest copper producer.

BHP has been increasingly investing in copper, and the company's full-year FY25 report demonstrates that pivot clearly.

Copper made up 45% of BHP's total underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) in FY25.

That's up from 29% one year ago.

Copper EBITDA came in at a record US$12.3 billion in FY25, up 44% compared to FY24.

In its FY25 report, BHP said it was the largest copper producer in the world following a 28% increase in production over three years.

The company is clearly bullish on future demand for the red metal as the world transitions from fossil fuels to electrification.

BHP says:

As we move towards a lower carbon future, copper is essential to creating the infrastructure needed for renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar.

We also believe the demand for copper will continue to grow due to grade declines at existing copper mines, the radical urbanisation of large populations in China and India, and the ongoing electrification of energy and transportation.

BHP now owns the world's largest copper resource base following several acquisitions, most notably Oz Minerals in 2023.

The miner is actively expanding its copper assets and spent US$4.5 billion on that endeavour in FY25.

That represented almost half of the miner's total US$9.8 billion capital and investment costs for the year.

In the long term, BHP expects global copper demand to grow from about 33 Mt today to more than 50 Mt by 2050.

BHP produced a record 2 Mt of copper in FY25, and at that level, it is the world's largest single producer.

So, imagine what the future looks like, with an estimated extra 17 Mt per year of production required by the world by FY50.

Some of BHP's copper assets are not even operational yet.

What's the short-term outlook for copper?

BHP shares rose 1.6% on the day the miner released its full-year FY25 report, despite revelations of a 26% fall in profit and a dividend cut.

BHP addressed the short-term outlook for copper in its report.

The miner said it maintained existing expectations for the global copper market to be "broadly balanced" in FY26.

BHP said:

Mine supply has seen some challenges in recent months, with growth expectations downgraded in several regions. Trade barriers could also hinder the movement of copper scrap, which may lead to greater demand for primary supply.

In the late 2020s, we expect new, as-yet uncommitted, mine supply to be required as demand continues to grow and existing supply peaks. The world is expected to need around 10 Mt of new annual mine supply over the next 10 years to meet growing demand.

BHP expects to produce between 1,800 kt and 2,000 kt on a consolidated basis in FY26. Hence, no growth on FY25 production.

The miner said it had several projects in execution and under study that it estimates could deliver about 2 Mt per annum of new attributable copper production in the 2030s. That would represent a doubling of FY25 production.

The projects include a growth program at Escondida in Chile, which is the world's largest copper mine. BHP owns a 57.5% stake.

BHP estimates its growth program will generate an additional 400 kt of cumulative copper production incrementally over FY27 to FY31 (weighted to the later years).

In South Australia, BHP says it is working out how to deliver up to 650 ktpa of copper from its 100%-owned Copper SA business.

In Peru, BHP expects Antamina to produce between 120 kt and 140 kt in FY26. It owns 33.75% of this operation.

In FY25, BHP invested US$2.1 billion to acquire a 50% interest in the Vicuña copper project in Argentina, which is in pre-construction.

The Vicuna project comprises the Josemaria deposit and the Filo del Sol deposit.

The miner says Filo del Sol is one of the largest greenfield copper discoveries in the world in 30 years.

BHP shares price snapshot

BHP shares have risen by 5% over the past 12 months and 28% over the past five years.