Here's why the ASX 200 could keep climbing higher in 2025

What is ahead for the remainder of the calendar year?

| More on:
Green arrow with green stock prices symbolising a rising share price.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) climbed 0.31% higher on Wednesday, closing the day at 8,830.40 points. 

The hump-day close marks a rebound for the week, and investors were able to breathe a sign of relief. 

On Monday the index fell 0.24% to 8,849.60 points after a broad-based weakness across the energy and financial sectors. At the same time, share prices of supermarket giants Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) and Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) were under pressure from a Federal Court ruling requiring them to backpay managers.

 On Tuesday the ASX 200 dipped another 0.52% to 8,803.5 points thanks to declines across the energy, banking, and healthcare sectors. 

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) also announced a large job-cut initiative and energy stocks fell due to an OPEC+ oil production increase. 

But Wednesday's rebound was led by the banking sector – the big 4 major banks saw gains of 1.47% to 1.70%, fuelled by cost-cutting announcements and renewed investor confidence.

And the good news is, there is room for more tailwinds throughout the remainder of the 2025 calendar year.

Potential for earnings surprises

Macquarie strategist Matthew Brooks told The Australian that conservative company guidance over the past month has led analysts to set their sights too low. This creates an ideal condition for future upgrades as businesses deliver above expectations.

"Conservative guides have set a low bar for FY26. Coupled with the RBA rate cuts and an already improving domestic economy, this could allow for earnings upgrades over FY26," he said.

"We could even start to see some more positive outlook comments in AGM season," he told The Australian.

Brooks is encouraged that ASX companies beat fiscal 2025 earnings estimates despite years of high rates, cost of living pressures and more recently, US tariffs.

More RBA rate cuts could stimulate growth

The RBA has already delivered three rate cuts and as borrowing costs continue to come down (while disposable incomes go up), it'll only boost consumer spending, housing demand—especially amid lower inflation and improving employment conditions. 

This is particularly beneficial for ASX stocks in the consumer staples, retail spending, real estate or consumer discretionary sector. 

For example, REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA) would benefit from more property selling and buying activity while electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) would benefit from consumers with more dictionary spending.

With economic growth set to accelerate and conservative ASX company guidance given in August, the remainder of 2025 could see ASX 200 index growth much stronger than originally expected.

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Coles Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Market News

A young man sits at his desk working on his laptop with a big smile on his face.
Broker Notes

Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers are feeling bullish about these three shares this week.

Read more »

Shot of a young businesswoman looking stressed out while working in an office.
Share Fallers

Why Australian Ethical, Northern Minerals, PLS, and Woodside shares are falling today

These shares are ending the week in the red. But why?

Read more »

busy trader on the phone in front of board depicting asx share price risers and fallers
Resources Shares

Brokers issue new price targets on soaring ASX 200 mining shares

ASX 200 mining shares BHP, PLS Group, South32, and many others hit multi-year highs this week.

Read more »

Concept image of a businessman riding a bull on an upwards arrow.
Share Gainers

4 ASX 200 stocks smashing the benchmark this week

Investors have been bidding up these four ASX 200 stocks this week. But why?

Read more »

A man clenches his fists in excitement as gold coins fall from the sky.
Share Gainers

Why Capstone Copper, Catalyst Metals, DroneShield, and Wildcat shares are rising today

These shares are having a strong finish to the week. But why?

Read more »

Person with a handful of Australian dollar notes, symbolising dividends.
Share Market News

Own DTEC or SEMI ETFs? Here's why it's a big day for you

Show us the money!

Read more »

A man holding a cup of coffee puts his thumb up and smiles while at laptop.
Broker Notes

Why Bell Potter just upgraded this smashing ASX 200 stock

After rising over 100% in 12 months, Bell Potter believes there is more to come.

Read more »

A man in his 30s with a clipped beard sits at his laptop on a desk with one finger to the side of his face and his chin resting on his thumb as he looks concerned while staring at his computer screen.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Catalyst Metals, NRW, and Paladin Energy shares

Let's see what analysts are saying about these ASX 200 shares.

Read more »