The Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX: NEC) share price has crashed 10.46% today. At the time of writing, the shares are changing hands at $1.6475 a piece.
Over the year, the share price is 22.04% higher.
The sell-off follows the company's FY25 results, which it posted yesterday.
Nine Entertainment revealed a mixed set of numbers. Revenue was just 2% higher over the year, but EBITDA dropped by 6%. Net profit after tax (NPAT) also slipped 10% and net profit after tax and minorities fell by 12%.
The group also reported fully diluted earnings per share (EPS) of 10.5 cents per share, which is 10% lower than FY24.
And the bad news keeps on coming.
In a recent note to investors, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) confirmed its neutral stance on the stock. It also raised its target price by 1 cent to $1.25.
At the time of writing, the new target price represents a potential 24.1% downside for investors over the next 12 months.
Here's what the broker had to say.
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Lacklustre results drag down Nine Entertainment shares
"Target price = A$1.25/sh, implying 5.5x EV/EBITDA (vs. 4.5x avg excl Domain recently) and 14.5x 12-month forward P/E. This excludes the A $0.49/sh special dividend (A$0.70/sh with franking benefits) with an ex-date of 11 September 2025," Macquarie said in its note.
"Nine Ent has balance sheet optionality for M&A which may diversify earnings from its structurally challenged industries (i.e. Broadcast and Publishing). However, we see fair value between A$1.74-1.95/sh, incl Domain special dividend and franking benefit. Rating = Neutral."
The broker also cut its earnings per share (EPS) by 29%, 35%, and 33% for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively, following the results announcement.
Macquarie forecasts flat EBITDA/NPAT (excluding Domain Holdings Australia Ltd (ASX: DHG)) in FY26. It explains that the media broadcast is cycling Olympic Games benefits in 1H26, and market conditions remain challenged. Overall, publishing continues to face headwinds from a structural decline in print media and low to mid-single-digit cost growth.
However, the broker thinks Stan should grow, with improved product (i.e. Optus Sport acquisition in August 2025), which justifies higher pricing without significant churn. It also takes net cost-out benefits into consideration for the forecast.
The swing factor in FY26 will be ad spend, and it is monitoring this monthly.
Regarding Nine Entertainment's earnings outlook, Macquarie said:
Nine Ent is largely exposed to structurally challenged industries (i.e. Broadcast and Publishing), and whilst the business has substantial capital to deploy after the sale of Domain, we see limited opportunities to meaningfully improve earnings within Nine Ent's core businesses.
With that said, we do acknowledge balance sheet capacity for M&A (netcash), albeit there are timing/execution risks and, as such, this is not factored into our forecasts/valuation.
