Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) shares were out of form on Friday and tumbled lower.
The industrial property giant's shares ended the day almost 5% lower at $33.90.
Let's see if Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) thinks that this has created a buying opportunity for investors.
Image source: Getty Images
What is the broker saying?
According to the note, the broker was pleased with its performance in FY 2025, with its operating earnings per share (EPS) coming in ahead of guidance.
However, it notes that its guidance for FY 2026 was softer than expected. It said:
FY25A operating EPS of 118 cents up +9.8%, ahead of guidance and broadly in line with VA consensus but slightly below MRE. FY26E guidance for OEPS growth of +9%, implying 128.6cps and below VA consensus and MRE.
And while Goodman's development work in progress (WIP) eased quarter on quarter to $12.9 billion, Macquarie highlights that management expects this to increase to over $15 billion in the near term. It adds:
Management is confident development WIP will be greater than $15bn with the addition of further data centre commencements. WIP at Jun-25 was $12.9bn (3Q25: $13.7bn) with $2.7bn completions and production running at $6.1bn. The yield on commencements improved to 9.2% (3Q25: 9.0%).
What is Macquarie's price target on Goodman shares?
In response to the company's results, the broker has trimmed its earnings estimates and valuation accordingly.
As a result, Macquarie has retained its neutral rating with a new price target of $34.73 (from $35.24).
Based on the current Goodman share price of $33.90, this implies only modest potential upside of approximately 2.5%.
Commenting on Goodman and its shares, the broker said:
Neutral $34.73 TP. GMG continues to look relatively attractive to large market-cap industrials on a PEG, however is trading at fair value based on our SOTP.
Valuation: $34.73 TP (from $35.24 prior), based on a SOTP. Catalysts: Potential upgrade to guidance at 1H26 result; data centre contract wins; new data centre capital partnerships.
Bullish brokers
It is worth noting that other brokers see more value in Goodman shares than Macquarie.
For example, this morning, Morgan Stanley has put an overweight rating and $40.47 price target on its shares and Citi has put a buy rating and $40.00 price target on them.
These price targets suggest that upside of 18% to 19% is possible between now and this time next year.
