Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are charging higher today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock closed on Friday trading for $15.81. At the time of writing, shares are swapping hands for $16.13 apiece, up 2.0%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.2% at this same time.
Despite today's strong performance, Northern Star shares are only up by 15.5% over the past 12 months.
I say 'only', because most of Northern Star's gold mining peers have gained significantly more over the past year, as witnessed by the 42.1% one-year gains posted by the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD).
But according to the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), the ASX 200 gold miner is well placed to make up for that lost ground, and then some, in the year ahead.
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Should I buy Northern Star shares today?
In a research report, released following the ASX 200 gold miner's June quarter update on Thursday, Macquarie maintained its outperform rating on Northern Star shares.
The broker noted that Northern Star reported quarterly gold production of 446,000 ounces, which was in line with both consensus estimates and Macquarie's own estimates.
The miner's all-in sustaining cost (AISC) to produce that gold came in at AU$2,197 per ounce, which was "slightly below" Macquarie's cost estimate.
In other key metrics, Northern Star reported that both its Yandal and Pogo mines delivered record quarterly and annual net mine cash flows. This saw Northern Star holding cash and bullion of $1.914 billion at the end of the quarter, after funding its De Grey acquisition.
As for what's ahead for Northern Star shares, the miner reiterated its FY 2026 guidance of 1.70 million to 1.85 million ounces of gold sold at an AISC of $2,300 to $2,700 per ounce.
Macquarie noted this was closely aligned with its own FY 2026 estimates.
Looking at potential catalysts for Northern Star, Macquarie said:
While progressing to plan, timing and cost control of the KCGM expansion is important. NST also commented that a little more colour on the group's outlook would be provided at the KCGM site visit on the 2 August.
The broker has a 12-month price target for Northern Star shares of $25.00. That represents a potential upside of 55.0% from current levels.
Atop those potential share price gains, Northern Star stock also trades on an unfranked 3.1% trailing dividend yield.
