Harvey Norman and JB Hi-Fi shares are popular choices amongst retail investors.
Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN) and JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) are both large capitalisation Australian retailers. JB Hi-Fi primarily offers consumer electronics and appliances, while Harvey Norman has a broader range, including furniture and homewares.
Both ASX 200 consumer discretionary companies have admirable long-term track records.
Harvey Norman is up 57% over the past 5 years, while JB Hi-Fi has surged an incredible 138% over the same timeframe.
But, which is the better pick today?
One leading expert recently reviewed the future prospects of the two companies, and revised its recommendations and price targets.
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Macquarie revises price targets
In a July 21 research report titled Australian Consumer, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) updated its recommendation and price targets for Harvey Norman and JB Hi-Fi shares.
Harvey Norman is Macquarie's top pick in the consumer discretionary space.
A material portion of Harvey Norman's category exposure is linked to housing conditions. Accordingly, the broker said Harvey Norman shares should benefit from "a more prolonged recovery across housing-related categories" and expects "potential moderation of the consumer electronics exposure being offset by an improvement on the remainder of the 'whole-of-home' categories".
Macquarie also anticipates New Zealand performance to improve over the coming 12 months.
Macquarie has rated the stock 'Outperform' and increased its price target by 7% from $5.50 to $5.90.
However, after climbing more than 20% since April, the broker was not so optimistic about JB Hi-Fi's ability to generate outsized returns from here.
On valuation grounds, Macquarie downgraded JB Hi-Fi shares from 'Outperform' to 'Neutral'
However, it increased its price target by 1% from $111 to $112. Macquarie noted that JB Hi-Fi was trading at a 50% premium to its 5-year valuation average.
The broker is expecting JB Hi-Fi to pay a special dividend in August, noting:
We believe JBH will remain in a strong net cash position by Jun-25. With no expected significant investment requirements, we expect a special dividend to be announced in August. We factor for an 80cps special dividend, consistent with the pcp.
Earnings season preview
Earnings season is fast approaching.
Harvey Norman and JB Hi-Fi shares will report their FY25 results in August.
For Harvey Norman, Macquarie is forecasting 10.5% year-over-year FY25 EBIT (ex. property revaluations) growth, driven by growth in Australian franchise EBIT, which the broker expects to increase 20% year-over-year.
For JB Hi-Fi, Macquarie forecasts an 8.7% year-over-year increase in EBIT, driven by revenue growth in consumer electronics.
Foolish Takeaway
Broker Macquarie currently prefers Harvey Norman shares over JB Hi-Fi shares. After rising nearly 140% in 5 years, the broker believes JB Hi-Fi is fully valued and has a neutral position on the stock.
Harvey Norman's dividend yield is also currently much more attractive than JB Hi-Fi. Specifically, JB Hi-Fi offers a dividend yield of 2.58%, while Harvey Norman's is 4.27%. This comparison, combined with Macquarie's rating, may sway passive-income orientated investors to prefer Harvey Norman. However, investors should keep in mind that Macquarie is expecting JB Hi-Fi to pay a special dividend in August.
Despite its neutral recommendation, it should also be noted Macquarie had nothing but good things to say about the quality of JB Hi-Fi's business, and suggested investors buy it on any share price weakness.
