Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) shares have been strong performers in 2026.
Since the start of the year, the uranium producer's shares have risen by 30%.
Is it too late to invest? Let's find out what Bell Potter thinks.
What is the broker saying?
Bell Potter was pleased with Boss Energy's performance during the second quarter, noting that its production was stronger than expected and its costs were lower than expected. It said:
BOE produced 456klbs (BPe 370klbs, VA 386klbs) from Honeymoon with sales of 350klbs (BPe 350klbs VA 401klbs), at an average C1 cost of A$30/lb (BPe A$40/lb VA A$42/lb) broadly beating expectations. The result was driven by higher lixiviant tenors (77 U3O8mg/l; BPe 70 U3O8mg/l), and an increase in production through the drying and packaging circuit. Management guided to a slower 3QFY26 as leach tenors decline and planned maintenance impact production.
And while its production guidance has been retained, its cost guidance has been lowered. The broker adds:
FY26 guidance is maintained at 1.6Mlb (~53% complete at 1HFY26) however C1 cost guidance is revised lower to A$36-$40/lb (from A$41-45/lb) and AISC to A$60-64 (from $64-70). Material cash flow movements included – Receipts A$44m, Honeymoon operating costs A$(16.3)m, Honeymoon wellfield capex and capital expenditure A$(11.5m) and G&A A$(3.7)m. Closing cash was A$53m (+A$5m QoQ), with total liquid assets being A$208m, down from A$212m on movements in listed assets and receivables.
Should you buy Boss Energy shares?
Despite the positives from the quarterly update, Bell Potter believes that Boss Energy shares have reached fair value now. That's at least until further details are provided in relation to the future of the Honeymoon project.
According to the note, the broker has downgraded the company's shares to a hold rating with a $1.95 price target. This is a touch below its current share price of $2.05.
Commenting on its downgrade, Bell Potter said:
We maintain our TP of $1.95/sh and reduce our recommendation to Hold (previously Buy). Our valuation assumes production at Honeymoon over the short 10Y mine life is limited to ~1.6Mlbs pa and costs remain elevated, until such a time that management have completed the work to guide otherwise. We have ascribed nil value to BOE's exploration assets at this point. NPAT changes are: FY26 +5%, FY27 -2% and FY28 nc.
