Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) shares are slipping today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) uranium miner closed on Friday trading for $4.09. In early afternoon trade on Monday, shares are changing hands for $4.06 apiece, down 0.7%.
Despite now being down 13.2% in July, Boss Energy shares remain up 63.2% in 2025. And investors who bought the ASX 200 uranium stock at the recent lows on 7 April will be sitting on gains of 93.3%.
That's been rough news to the large number of short sellers who've been expecting the stock to tumble. The uranium miner remains the second most shorted share on the ASX this week, with a short interest of 15.1%.
But after the big year to date share price surge, might the short sellers have it right this time?
Here's what the analysts from Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) are forecasting.
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What's next for Boss Energy shares?
In a research report released on Friday, Macquarie noted:
BOE announced on 18-June it had achieved FY25e guidance (850,000lb) and would then be taking the opportunity to conduct minor maintenance through the remainder of June. We lower our forecast drummed volume to 375klb in 4Q (which is now effectively a timing issue between 4Q & 1Q FY26e)
Boss Energy shares closed up 14.3% on 18 June following the release of that full-year guidance update.
Boss Energy managing director Duncan Craib labelled the uranium production achievement from the miner's South Australian-based Honeymoon project "a major achievement".
Craib said, "It also confirms that the changes we made to the processing circuit at Honeymoon, including the adoption of the ion exchange technology, have met or exceeded our expectations."
Macquarie lauded Boss Energy's performance. But the broker expects some headwinds are brewing as the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) rounds off its buying, potentially pressuring global uranium prices.
According to Macquarie:
Boss performed very well operationally & commercially, and uranium spot prices rallied – despite a flat term price CYTD (still ahead). As SPUT buying completes (next 1-2 weeks?), we expect spot prices could be prone to a ~10% fall
Connecting the dots, the broker downgraded Boss Energy shares to a neutral rating. Macquarie called the downgrade "a tactical call" in light of Boss' strong outperformance year to date.
Still, the broker has a $4.45 12-month price target on the ASX 200 uranium stock. That represents a potential upside of almost 10% from current levels.
