Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) shares have slipped further into the red in early Monday morning trade.
At the time of writing, the shares have fallen by around 1% to a fresh 52-week low of $10.30 each.
Today's decline means the shares are now down around 9% year to date and over 11% below the trading levels seen this time last year.
For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up just over 1% for the year to date and 3% higher over the past 12 months.
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Why is everyone selling their Origin Energy shares?
Origin Energy was one of the strongest performers on the index in early 2026, but after the energy provider posted its March quarter update in late April, investors rushed to sell off their shares.
The update, which covers Origin Energy's Integrated Gas, Energy markets, and Octopus Energy segments, revealed declines across the board. The company also downgraded its FY26 EBITDA guidance.
The sell-off continued through May and June. Now, at the time of writing, Origin Energy shares have lost around 19% of their value since the announcement.
The share price has fallen around 7% in the first week of July alone.
There haven't been any price-sensitive updates out of the company recently to explain the sell-off. It looks like the ASX energy stock has come off the boil following lower realised LNG prices and a recent market-wide energy pricing review.
The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) and various state watchdogs have mandated that retailers pass on regulatory price cuts. But the adjustments have caused a significant restructure of how power bills are calculated.
This regulatory scrutiny of electricity pricing has raised concerns that retail margins could come under pressure. And investors are spooked.
The question now is whether it's still a good idea to add Origin Energy shares to your portfolio, or whether you should sell up ahead of the next slump.
Are the energy shares a buy, sell, or hold now?
It looks like the experts are also divided about the outlook for Origin Energy shares over the next 12 months.
Market Index data shows brokers are split between a hold and a buy rating. But after the latest price crash, the $12.73 average target price still implies a potential 23% upside, at the time of writing.
TradingView data shows something very similar. Out of 12 analysts, five have a hold rating, and five have a buy or strong buy rating. Another two analysts rate the energy stock as a sell or strong sell.
But they do all agree an upside is ahead.
The average $12.15 target price implies a potential 18% upside at the time of writing. And some are tipping the shares to storm up to 30% higher to $13.40 a piece, over the next 12 months.
With lower EBITDA expected for FY26, continued regulatory headwinds, and the potential for oil and LNG headwinds to continue trickling through into FY27, I think we could see even more downside ahead for Origin Energy shares this year.
