The team at Bell Potter have just released updated guidance for Amplitude Energy Ltd (ASX: AEL) shares.
It has been a tough year for Amplitude Energy shares ,which have crashed over 50% year to date.
For comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) is up 10% in the same period.
However, despite the struggling performances thus far, Bell Potter sees big upside over the next 12 months.
Here's what the broker had to say.
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Quarter impacted by seasonality and sentiment
Bell Potter expects Amplitude Energy's June 2026 quarter to be softer, with production broadly flat but lower realised gas prices due to mild seasonal demand, stronger supply from Longford, and weaker sentiment across the energy sector.
Despite this, the broker believes the company remains on track to meet FY26 guidance and expects market conditions to improve.
Bell Potter is increasingly positive on the East Coast Supply Project, noting it has been substantially de-risked following the Artisan acquisition, with a positive Final Investment Decision anticipated this quarter.
Supported by a solid balance sheet and existing assets generating around $150 million in annual free cash flow, Bell Potter believes Amplitude Energy is well positioned to fund the project's remaining development toward first production in 2028.
AEL is a pure-play leverage to the southern east coast Australia gas market with the majority of its gas sales under stable contracted prices. The company's flagship 100%-owned Gippsland Basin asset is now consistently operating near nameplate capacity (68TJ/day); debottlenecking could see incremental improvements.
Big upside in tact
Based on this guidance, the team at Bell Potter has slightly lowered its price target to $2.50 (previously $2.90).
However from yesterday's closing price of approximately $1.295, this indicates an upside potential of 93%.
It has retained its buy recommendation.
AEL is in a strong position to meet FY26 guidance despite the weaker June 2026 quarter and we expect energy markets and sentiment to normalise.
The East Coast Supply Project has been de-risked through the Artisan acquisition, and we expect a positive Final Investment Decision in the current quarter.
Encouragingly, Bell Potter isn't the only expert tipping a big rebound for Amplitude Energy shares.
Morgans recently said there had been some sizable, albeit short-term catalysts, that recently pushed the share price lower.
However, the broker now sees it as a rebound candidate.
Morgans has a buy rating on Amplitude shares with a price target of $3.
This indicates 130% upside from current levels.
