Historically, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has followed major rises and falls of the US market.
So far this year, we have already seen tariff announcements and overseas conflict impact global markets.
As the calendar ticks over to the new financial year, here are some upcoming dates for investors to watch.
July 8th – "Liberation day" tariff pause ends
As a quick refresher, back in April, US President Donald Trump announced a sweeping set of trade duties intended as a reset of U.S. trade policy.
Trump declared April 2, 2025 as "Liberation Day," a symbolic start of an aggressive trade push aimed at reducing America's trade deficit and bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.
The tariffs included a 34% reciprocal tariff on goods imported from the world's largest manufacturing nation, China.
This was in addition to the 20% tariff for China that has been previously announced.
The tariffs imposed on some other countries were even higher. The full country by country list can be found here.
Global markets reacted negatively, as both the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) and S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) fell considerably.
However on April 9, 2025, under pressure from U.S. allies, businesses, and stock market volatility, Trump agreed to a 90-day pause on full implementation.
A 10% baseline tariff remained in place on all imports entering the United States.
Fast forward to today and markets have bounced back, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) even reaching record highs during that span.
What to expect?
As it stands, if no agreements are reached, full tariffs will snap back into effect as originally outlined.
From the swift recovery of the Australian and US markets, it might seem like investors think these tariffs would never come to fruition.
At the time of writing, China and the UK have secured bilateral deals, while the EU, Canada, India, and several Asian partners remain in active negotiations.
Australia sits without a trade agreement to reduce tariffs under Trump's pause. With negotiations ongoing and legal channels (like the WTO) active, there's still a window before July 8. No relief is guaranteed yet.
Aussie investors should be closely monitoring the situation between now and July 8. Volatility could be on the cards if no agreement is reached.
Back in April, the tariff announcement triggered one of the largest drops in five years. This included more than 4% in one day on April 7.
It's hard to predict what July 8th could bring. But it's important for investors to reflect on what the announcement brought on the share market.
Late July – Earnings season
Other key dates to watch will be earnings season reports from the largest US stocks.
Investors of magnificent seven stocks like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will be closely monitoring earnings season results.
While specific dates have not been announced, these tech giants typically report at the end of July (or early August).
Earnings season can bring volatility. Better-than-expected results can cause stock prices to jump. However, missed expectations can trigger sharp declines—even if profits are still growing.
