The Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price is the fastest riser of the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) today.
The ASX lithium share rose 9.32% to an intraday high of 73 cents in earlier trading.
Liontown shares are now swapping hands for 70 cents apiece, up 4.8%.
Fellow lithium stock Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) is the second fastest riser of the ASX 200, jumping 6.9% to its intraday peak of $1.40.
The Pilbara Minerals share price has since retraced a little to $1.38 per share, up 5.34%.
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What's driving the Liontown share price higher?
There is no news from either lithium producer today.
Macquarie has issued a note saying it expects lithium prices to remain subdued in FY26 but recover between FY27 and FY30.
By the end of the decade, Macquarie expects the spodumene 6% price to be trading at about US$1,750 per tonne.
Today, the spodumene 6% price is just US$624 per tonne.
Lithium commodity prices continue to struggle amid global oversupply.
The lithium carbonate price closed 0.25% lower at US$8,426.48 per tonne overnight. That's a four-year low.
Rising supply from China, Indonesia, and the Congo is adding to the oversupply, according to Trading Economics analysts.
Despite poor commodity prices, many miners do not want to close operations and risk losing market share.
They also want to preserve their relationships with governments and battery producers, given that lithium still has a bright future in the energy transition.
Right now, though, sales of electric vehicles in China are slowing, and exports of new cars have fallen.
This is despite ongoing government subsidies to promote green cars.
China is also subsidising battery producers, which has contributed to the higher output that is dampening lithium prices today.
Liontown isn't the only ASX lithium share on the rise today.
The Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) share price is up 4.3% to 9.7 cents.
The IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) share price is up 0.24% to $4.22.
The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price is up 1.75% to $23.86.
The Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) share price is up 0.31% to $107.44.
The Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) share price is steady at 1.5 cents.
Macquarie has a neutral rating on Liontown with a 12-month share price target of 65 cents.
The broker is bullish on Pilbara Minerals, giving it an outperform rating and a share price target of $2.40.
The divergent views on the two ASX lithium stocks are partly down to the implied lithium prices baked into their share prices today.
Macquarie said:
Miners are trading with implied lithium price close to US$1,000/t (LT, perpetuity).
PLS has the lowest implied spodumene price at US$925/t while LTR is trading with the highest implied lithium price at US$1,225/t.
Both IGO and SYA are trading at ~US$1,000/t implied spodumene price (SC6%).
