The Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) share price ran into turbulence in April.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) airline stock closed out March trading for $9.05. At market close on 30 April, shares were changing hands for $8.85.
This left the Qantas share price down 2.2% for the month just past, significantly underperforming the 3.6% gains posted by the ASX 200 over this same period.
What happened with the Qantas share price in April?
There was no price-sensitive news out from the airline in April.
Yet the Qantas share price lost ground despite a large fall in energy costs over the month.
Brent crude oil dropped from around US$75 per barrel at the end of March to US$63 at the end of April, down some 16%.
If oil prices remain low, that should offer strong support for Qantas stock. As you may be aware, jet fuel is the airline's second biggest expense after new aircraft acquisitions.
Drilling a little deeper here, though, we see that oil prices tumbled over the month in part amid concerns that US President Donald Trump's tariff campaign could lead to recessions in some of the world's richest countries. And that also looks to have put pressure on the Qantas share price.
These concerns have seen both Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) and Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD) downgrade their 2025 fiscal year (FY 2025) guidance in recent days.
Flight Centre pointed to shorter-term volatility spurred by uncertain trading conditions, which the company said includes the recent changes to US trade and entry policies.
And in an update this morning, Corporate Travel stated:
Broad economic and tariff uncertainty in North America and Asia has led to reductions in client activity resulting in slower growth than expected during what is traditionally the busiest period of the year.
I imagine the Flying Kangaroo could be facing similar headwinds.
What now for the ASX 200 airline?
In a report released at the end of March, Goldman Sachs maintained its bullish outlook for Australia's biggest airline.
The broker has an $11.80 target on the Qantas share price. This implies a potential gain of almost 32% from the current $8.95 a share. And that doesn't include any upcoming dividends.
After suspending its dividend payouts in 2020 as the COVID pandemic closures brought air travel to a standstill around the world, Qantas reinstated its dividend payments this year.
The airline paid a fully franked interim dividend of 26.4 cents a share on 16 April. (Shares traded ex-dividend in March, so this won't have had an impact on the April performance.)
Taking a step back, at the time of writing, the Qantas share price is up 54% since this time last year.
