In a difficult year for the broader market, S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stocks have been shining bright.
And the gold miners' outperformance looks to have some legs, with April potentially shaping up as another big month.
Currently, at US$3,022.94 per ounce, the gold price is down around US$30 per ounce from last week's all-time highs.
Still, that sees the price of the yellow metal up more than 15% in 2025. And bullion has soared 39% over the past 12 months.
Gold has benefited from its classic haven status amid rising global political and economic uncertainty, fuelled over the past months by the return of United States President Donald Trump to the White House.
With the miners' costs of digging an ounce of gold from the ground relatively fixed, much of any increase in the gold price goes straight to the profit line. A phenomenon that is clearly illustrated by the sizzling performance of the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) – which also contains smaller miners outside of ASX 200 gold stocks.
Here's what I mean.
Year to date, the ASX 200 is down 3.6%, while the All Ords Gold Index has gained 25.4%.
And over the past full year, the All Ords Gold Index has rocketed 53.8%, blowing away the 1.3% 12-month gains posted by the ASX 200.
Taking a look at some of the leading ASX 200 gold stocks, here's how they've performed so far in 2025 amid the wider market retrace:
- Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are up 12.0%
- Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares are up 14.9%
- Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) shares are up 3.8%
- Gold Road Resources Ltd (ASX: GOR) shares are up 20.4%
- Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares are up 17.8%
- Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU) shares are up 21.5%
- De Grey Mining Ltd (ASX: DEG) shares are up 12.3%
- Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL) shares are up 9.4%
- West African Resources Ltd (ASX: WAF) shares are up 51.7%
This stellar performance really highlights the enduring nature of gold's haven status.
And April could ignite a fresh rally for these already outperforming ASX 200 gold stocks.
Here's why…
Why ASX 200 gold stocks could shine bright in April
ASX 200 gold stocks have been obvious beneficiaries of the fast-rising gold price.
And with the yellow metal having shown a clear tendency to gain value amid geopolitical uncertainties, April could see ASX 200 gold stocks outshining the broader market once more.
According to Treasurer Jim Chalmers, Trump's tariff policies have "cast a shadow over" the pending Australian budget.
Trump is set to unveil the details of new US tariffs on scores of nations by 2 April, after his administration previously placed 25% import tariffs on aluminium and steel.
Chalmers said (quoted by Bloomberg):
This is a whole new world of uncertainty that we're dealing with here. The changes out of the US are not surprising, but they are seismic. We've got conflicts in the Middle East and Europe. We've got political uncertainty and division around the world.
Advantage bullion
According to Citi, markets have not fully priced in the potential disruptions of the pending Trump tariffs.
While the broker expects many commodities could be hit with increased levies, it believes gold, broadly viewed as a monetary asset, will be exempt. This could lead to another big boost in the gold price and throw up some heady tailwinds for ASX 200 gold stocks.
Citi's global head of commodities research, Max Layton, said (quoted by The Australian Financial Review):
The market could be significantly underpricing the impact of the upcoming April 2 US reciprocal tariffs on growth and commodity prices, and strongly recommend clients take insurance against adverse outcomes, or take outright exposure to these risks.
Citi upgraded its short-term gold price target to US$3,200 an ounce, up from US$3,000 per ounce.
That would see the gold price up US$177 per ounce from current levels and could help put a rocket under the already highly profitable ASX 200 gold stocks.
