Zip share price feeling the heat from looming BNPL regulations

Australia's pending BNPL regulations are throwing up headwinds for Zip shares.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

It's been a rough month for the Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) share price.

How rough?

Well, on 6 January, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) buy now, pay later (BNPL) stock was trading for $3.19. In afternoon trade today, those same shares are changing hands for $2.21 apiece. That sees the BNPL stock down 31% in a month.

However, I should note that even following that big slide, the Zip share price is up 179% since this time last year.

Now, much of the past month's pain was delivered on 30 January, when shares crashed by 25.4%. This followed the release of Zip's December quarter results.

While the company achieved a 50.2% year over year increase in cash earnings before taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBTDA) to $35.3 million, this fell short of some more optimistic analyst forecasts.

ASX 200 investors also look to have punished the stock amid a retrace in margins, with Zip's revenue margin sliding to 7.9% from 8.2% reported in the prior corresponding period.

Turning the clock forward to this week, the Zip share price closed down 3.0% yesterday and is down another 3.5% today at $2.18.

The renewed selling pressure looks to be driven by new regulations on the BNPL industry set to be finalised by the Australian Government.

A worried woman looks at her phone and laptop, seeking ways to tighten her belt against inflation.

Image source: Getty Images

BNPL regulations hitting Zip share price

According to the government's draft report, the new regulations that are throwing up headwinds for the Zip share price this week "aim to regulate BNPL in a way that is flexible, adaptable and proportionate to the risk of consumer harm".

So, just how does the government intend to do this?

Stephen Jones, Assistant Treasurer and Minister for Financial Services, explained that the key provisions of the BNPL reforms include:

  • Clear obligations on BNPL providers to conduct affordability checks, ensure responsible lending practices, and implement mechanisms to identify vulnerable consumers.
  • Enhanced requirements for transparency in fees and charges, ensuring Australians are fully informed of the cost of BNPL products, in addition to setting fee caps on BNPL.
  • BNPL providers will be held to consistent standards, creating a level playing field and providing certainty for industry to invest and innovate.

The government is accepting feedback on the new regulations until 12 February.

While these new regulations could take a bite out of Zip's profits in its Australian market, the Zip share price should get some support from the company's large and growing footprint in the massive United States BNPL space.

In the December quarter, Zip's total transaction value (TTV) in the US grew by 38.3% while its US revenue surged by 41.0%.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Zip Co. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on BNPL shares

Two people comparing and analysing material.
BNPL shares

Should I buy Zip shares before the end of July?

The market expects profits to rise quickly from here. That creates considerable upside if Zip delivers.

Read more »

Happy man wearing a blue shirt and glasses holding a card and using buy now pay later services to purchase a product on his office computer
BNPL shares

$10,000 invested in Zip shares at the March lows is now worth…

While Zip shares are well down for the year, investors who bought at the March lows are sitting pretty.

Read more »

An older man throws his hands up in excitement as he rides a carnival swing high up in the air.
BNPL shares

Zip shares are going wild. What investors need to know

Zip's recovery is gaining momentum, but the biggest test lies ahead.

Read more »

An evening shot of a busy Times Square in New York.
BNPL shares

Could US expansion send Zip shares soaring further?

The fintech's biggest opportunity may still be unfolding in America.

Read more »

A happy shopper with a wide mouthed smile holds multiple shopping bags up around her shoulders.
BNPL shares

Why brokers think Zip shares could soar 50% or more in FY27

Experts believe Zip's earnings momentum could fuel another major rally.

Read more »

A woman smiles over the top of multiple shopping bags she is holding in both hands up near her face.
BNPL shares

Zip shares: 3 reasons to buy and 3 reasons to sell

Zip shares have fallen back into the red this week. Find out whether they're a buy or sell now.

Read more »

A man scratches his head in confusion.
BNPL shares

What on earth is going on with Zip shares?

Is Zip's latest rally real, or another classic false dawn?

Read more »

Woman with shopping bags pulling man along who is flying in the air.
BNPL shares

Zip shares are flying again. Is this ASX 200 stock finally back in favour?

Brokers still see upside for this surging ASX 200 stock.

Read more »