With 2025 fast approaching, we cast our gaze to Australia's rich resource sector and ponder which S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares we should buy and which ones we'll be better off leaving on the shelf for another year.
To give us some better clarity on how some of Australia's biggest resource companies may perform in the year ahead, we turn to Bank of America's resource price forecasts from its latest 2025 global research report.
ASX 200 shares to buy in 2025
Let's start with the ASX 200 shares that could enjoy some sustaining tailwinds from rising resource prices in 2025.
First up, we have gold stocks like Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) and Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN).
Both Northern Star and Evolution Mining have delivered strong gains this year, with Northern Star shares up 19.17% in 2024 and Evolution shares up 27.32%.
Atop those capital gains, both ASX mining stocks also pay dividends. Evolution Mining shares trade on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 1.38%. And Northern Star shares trade on an unfranked trailing yield of 2.45%.
This strong year to date performance from these ASX 200 shares has come amid a rising gold price. The yellow metal kicked off 2024 trading for US$2,042 per ounce before hitting highs of US$2,788 per ounce on 30 October. It's since come off the boil a tad, with that same ounce currently fetching US$2,623.
And the year ahead could be another rewarding one for shareholders of top ASX mining stocks, with BofA forecasting that 2025 will see gold gain more than 14% from current levels.
According to Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives research at BofA, "After facing headwinds early in the year, gold should peak at US$3,000 per ounce."
Another ASX 200 resource share that could be set to outperform in 2025 is copper producer Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR).
The Sandfire share price has also been a strong outperformer in 2024, up 38.81% year to date.
While copper prices haven't seen quite the increase that we've witnessed with gold, the red metal is up 6% this calendar year and currently trades for US$9,075 per tonne.
And with BofA forecasting another 17% uptick in copper prices by the end of 2025 (courtesy of The Australian Financial Review), Sandfire shares also could continue their run higher next year.
Resource shares to avoid
Having covered the potential ASX 200 share winners of 2025, I may wish to avoid oil-focused energy stocks.
Both Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) already had a tough year in 2024 amid lacklustre oil prices.
Brent crude oil briefly traded above US$91 per barrel in early April but has since slumped to US$72 per barrel.
Along with the slide in oil prices, Woodside shares are down 22.54% year to date, and Santos shares are down 13.29%. However, shareholder pain has been eased somewhat by the dividends the ASX 200 shares delivered. Woodside trades on a fully franked trailing yield of 8.05%, while Santos trades on an unfranked trailing yield of 6.97%.
But with BofA forecasting that the oil price will average only US$65 per barrel in 2025, both companies' share prices and dividends may come under further pressure in the new year.
