Owning Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ) shares has been tough for shareholders in recent times. If the bank could just grow its profit, investor confidence may turn around.
But how likely is profit growth?
All the ASX bank shares (and unlisted ones too) are fighting for the same borrowers and savers, so competition is strong, and it's hurting profit margins.
High interest rates and an elevated cost of inflation are hurting household finances and causing rising arrears.
The recent BOQ FY24 result showed these issues in action. BOQ's cash earnings after tax dropped 24% to $343 million, with the net interest margin (NIM) falling 13 basis points to 1.56% and housing lending falling 2%.
After a difficult year, we'll examine what analysts expect to happen with BOQ's earnings in future years. Let's start with the current financial year, FY25.
Starting with FY25
The broker UBS notes that BOQ management is trying to proactively address elements of the bank's underperformance, with a "need to simplify the group's structure" and "reset the economics around their franchise model". UBS pointed to costs, NIM, and retail profitability as reasons for the underperformance.
UBS suggested a pivot (and greater resources) being put towards higher returning segments such as specialist asset finance and business banking could help drive the return on equity (ROE) from 5.7% in the second half of FY24 to a target of 8%.
However, the broker notes that the market appears to be sceptical that the bank can achieve an ROE of 8%. UBS believes Bank of Queensland shares could rise if it makes more progress on its simplification plan and achieves a better-than-expected NIM, though costs could be a negative surprise.
UBS is forecasting that BOQ's cash profit could increase by 6.4% to $365 million.
Next, FY26
Pleasingly, the broker is expecting BOQ's profit to grow in the 2026 financial year.
If the ASX bank share can demonstrate that its profit is on a sustainable path of ongoing growth, then investors may be more willing to pay more for Bank of Queensland shares.
In FY26, BOQ is projecting that cash net profit could rise by 7.7% to $393 million.
Then, FY27
I'm not sure how likely it is that the bank will, in reality, grow its profit year after year. Changes in the economy can affect a bank's profit and balance sheet, positively or negatively.
But, UBS is currently projecting that BOQ's cash net profit could rise by 3.8% to $408 million.
After that, FY28
If the ASX bank share can keep growing its profit every year during this period, then I'd call that a success and a surprise.
In the 2028 financial year, BOQ is predicted to see yet another year of profit growth. UBS forecasts cash net profit to climb by 4.9% to $428 million.
Finally, FY29
UBS is forecasting that BOQ could finish this series of projections with yet another year of profit growth.
The broker projects that BOQ's cash net profit could increase by 2.8% to $440 million in the 2029 financial year.
If these predictions end up being correct, then it's suggesting that BOQ's profit could rise by 28% between FY24 and FY29. That's not a huge amount, but add in the dividend payments, and it could create satisfactory total returns from Bank of Queensland shares over the next five years.
