The ASX share market recently reached an all-time peak, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) hitting approximately 8,440 points. But the best could be yet to come.
While past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance, it could be a mistake for investors to believe that the market can't keep going higher from here.
Investors usually value a business on how much profit it's making and how much profit it's expected to make in the coming years. Businesses are doing their best to make more profit each year, so over time it's not surprising that share prices rise.
One expert believes this is a particularly good time to invest in the ASX share market because of economic developments.
Optimistic case for ASX share market returns
Moomoo market strategist Jessica Amir believes the ASX share market could climb to the end of 2024 and into 2025, according to reporting by The Australian.
Amir suggests that Australia's economy is growing stronger than economists expected. She pointed out that some company earnings growth forecasts are being upgraded, and Bitcoin has just hit a new record, which helps the payments company Block Inc CDI (ASX: SQ2).
Another benefit for investors is that the US dollar has been falling in recent days. The Australian quoted Amir, who said:
More pressure is likely to ease off the USD, which could push commodity prices higher, allowing them to explore new territory. This will likely drive commodity stocks up, broadening Australia's sharemarket rally.
We're entering what is traditionally the best period for sharemarket returns, with stocks historically rallying from November to February.
The overall return of the ASX share market will be most influenced by its biggest businesses, such as Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), Goodman Group (ASX: GMG), and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG).
Returns are not guaranteed
It should be noted that the ASX share market is forward-looking, so the current valuations of businesses are trying to take into account the positive picture for profits. That's why it's already reaching all-time highs. As Asmir mentioned:
That said, there's always the risk of a pullback in markets. Rising tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war could make investors jittery.
However, markets have weathered similar challenges in the past.
Time will tell what happens with the ASX share market over the next 14 months, but investors do seem more positive that conditions are improving.
