ASX 200 shares continue their ascent in 2024, and with the season for annual general meetings (AGMs) just around the corner, analysts at investment bank Macquarie have chimed in.
Following a global slowdown across most of the world's major economies, Macquarie sees challenges for several ASX shares moving forward.
But it also sees several opportunities. The bank is bullish on JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH), Downer EDI Ltd (ASX: DOW), and Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC), expecting positive surprises from their upcoming AGMs.
Let's take a look.
ASX 200 shares AGM surprises
Macquarie analysts see ASX 200 companies presenting mixed forward guidance this AGM season thanks to a slowdown in the global business cycle.
According to The Australian, Macquarie says we could be heading into a period of flat growth for the world economy, and as a result, every sector bar consumer staples, utilities, and technology has been downgraded.
Overall, this is a slightly more negative picture than 2023 when a modest rise in aggregate [earnings oer share] EPS in September signalled potential for positive AGM surprises.
The broker says that negative surprises could be the result of a stronger Aussie dollar and other Forex headwinds.
Despite this, Macquarie does see its way out of the weeds, identifying JB Hi-Fi, Charter Hall, and Downer as companies that could surprise to the upside in their AGMs in terms of their financial guidance.
Market values are often set based on expectations, so a positive surprise can translate to higher prices in many instances.
Macquarie also has a contrarian view against consensus estimates on each of these ASX 200 shares. This would explain their position on the AGM side too.
Stocks to watch for AGM surprises
Macquarie expects these companies to stand out during this AGM season by providing higher-than-expected guidance.
And it's not entirely alone in its assessment of these ASX 200 shares. Several other brokers are bullish too.
Macquarie's positive outlook on JB Hi-Fi is echoed by Bell Potter, which has assigned the stock a buy rating and a price target of $87.
It says JB Hi-Fi is a "market leader" in Australian consumer electronics and is well-positioned to grow in the coming years. Shares are up 52% this year.
Macquarie also thinks that Downer could rally if guidance is higher than previously forecast. Downer shares rallied double-digits when it beat expectations for its FY24 results in August.
Downer's exposure to infrastructure means its revenues aren't highly correlated to the broader economy, and this could also be a factor to consider. The ASX 200 share is up 24% this year to date.
Its AGM is to be held on November 20.
Despite the challenges posed by the high-interest-rate environment, Charter Hall has continued to grow its funds under management and increase its distributions to shareholders.
As of June 30, it managed nearly $81 billion in client funds. As my colleague Tristan noted, it has increased its dividend payout annually since 2009.
The company projects a 6% growth in distributions this year from last year's payout of 45.1 cents per security.
Foolish takeaway
Macquarie smells trouble potentially on the way in the upcoming AGM season, which could hurt some ASX 200 shares.
On the other hand, it could be a catalyst for each of JB Hi-FI, Charter Hall and Downer, should they forecast higher-than-expected growth.
Time will tell what the market's reaction will be.
