Investors were piling back into ASX lithium stocks last week at long last.
Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO), IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO), Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR), and Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) all recorded strong weekly gains.
This was driven by a rebound in lithium futures in China, which has sparked hopes that the lithium rout is finally over.
Is this actually the case? Well, let's see what Goldman Sachs is saying after its analysts released their latest lithium price estimates for the coming years.
Lithium price forecast to 2027
Here's how spot prices are looking this week compared to late January:
- Lithium carbonate – China: US$12,604 per tonne (January: US$11,867)
- Lithium hydroxide – China: US$9,653 per tonne (January: US$9,899)
- Spodumene 6%: US$910 per tonne (January: US$1,000)
As you can see above, there has been an uptick in lithium carbonate prices since late January. Though, the same cannot be said for lithium hydroxide and spodumene 6% prices.
But where to from here?
Let's see what Goldman is forecasting for lithium prices out to 2027 and also the long-term average.
Lithium carbonate – China:
- 2024: US$12,847 per tonne
- 2025: US$11,000 per tonne
- 2026: US$13,323 per tonne
- 2027: US$15,646 per tonne
- Long-term: US$15,500 per tonne
Lithium hydroxide – China:
- 2024: US$13,795 per tonne
- 2025: US$12,500 per tonne
- 2026: US$14,323 per tonne
- 2027: US$16,146 per tonne
- Long-term: US$15,500 per tonne
Spodumene 6%:
- 2024: US$1,175 per tonne
- 2025: US$800 per tonne
- 2026: US$978 per tonne
- 2027: US$1,155 per tonne
- Long-term: US$1,150 per tonne
Based on the above, it is apparent that Goldman Sachs isn't expecting prices to rebound meaningfully from current levels.
So, if you're buying ASX lithium stocks on the assumption that they will surge soon, it might be worth taking this into consideration.
And while actual prices could ultimately vary significantly from Goldman's estimates, its analysts have been spot on with their estimates over the last 18 months. So, they certainly know what they're talking about.
