S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold shares have, broadly, delivered some market-smashing gains in 2023.
Since the opening bell on 3 January, the ASX 200 has gained 7.5%.
But most Aussie gold stocks have been far more rewarding for shareholders, with the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) – which also contains some smaller miners outside of ASX 200 gold shares – up 21.8% year to date.
Here's how these leading ASX 200 gold shares have performed so far in 2023:
- Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are up 20.8%
- Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares are up 2.9%*
- De Grey Mining Ltd (ASX: DEG) shares are up 0.4%
- Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) shares are up 78.4%
- Gold Road Resources Ltd (ASX: GOR) shares are up 13.6%
- Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares are up 24.5%
- Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL) shares are up 46.3%
(*Note, Newmont only began trading on the ASX on 27 October following its acquisition of Newcrest Mining.)
The strong performance you see above was spurred by a 10% year to date boost in the gold price. On 3 January the yellow metal was trading for US$1,839 per ounce. Today that same ounce is worth US$2,028.
That's for the year almost gone by.
The question now is, can ASX 200 gold shares continue to outshine the market in 2024?
What's ahead for ASX 200 gold shares?
Keep in mind that we're talking about a large group of stocks here. As you can see from their divergent 2023 performance in the list up top, a range of other factors will impact their individual share performance in 2024, including mining costs, production levels, hedging commitments and more.
With that said, the gold price will certainly play an important role in determining the overall profitability of ASX 200 gold shares in the year ahead.
On that front, the outlook for gold looks promising.
Near-record levels of central bank buying are expected to continue in 2024, which will help support the price.
Gold's haven status amid rising global conflict and economic uncertainty should also support demand in the months ahead.
And then there was the unexpectedly dovish turn by some US Federal Reserve officials last week. Not only did the Fed keep rates on hold, but the central bank flagged the potential for rate cuts next year.
Gold, which pays no yield itself, tends to catch headwinds amid higher interest rates.
Gazing into its own crystal ball, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ) recently increased its 12-month price target for bullion to US$2,200 per ounce, which would be welcome news for ASX 200 gold shares.
According to ANZ (courtesy of Barron's):
Gold looks like it will be well supported by several factors in 2024: the start of a rate cut cycle in the US, slowing economic growth, a weaker US dollar, strong central bank purchases and elevated geopolitical risks.
The World Gold Council also expects the gold price to either remain stable near its record highs in 2024 or potentially surprise to the upside.
"We expect conditions to be in place that support a stable gold market at the least and even a possible surprise to the upside," Juan Carlos Artigas, global head of research at the WGC, said.
According to the WGC 2024 gold outlook report:
The likelihood of the Fed steering the US economy to a safe landing with interest rates above 5% is by no means certain. And a global recession is still on the cards. This should encourage many investors to hold effective hedges, such as gold, in their portfolios.
If the gold price does manage to remain above US$2,000 per ounce in 2024, and potentially climb to US$2,200 per ounce, it should help ASX 200 gold shares deliver another year of outperformance.
