The New Hope Corporation Limited (ASX: NHC) share price is cranking today, up 6% after the coal price shot higher on global commodity markets overnight.
New Hope shares are currently changing hands for $5.86, up 5.78% at the time of writing on Friday.
In overnight trade, the coal price stretched 2.99% higher to US$135.95 per tonne.
Other ASX 200 coal stocks are also up today, as follows:
- The Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) share price is up 7.33% to $6.88
- The Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL) share price is up 2.66% to $4.63
- The Coronado Global Resources Inc (ASX: CRN) share price is up 2.6% to $1.48
ASX energy shares generally move in tandem with energy commodity prices.
Coal price down 66% in a year
Newcastle coal futures have fallen 66% over the past 12 months. Today's price is the lowest since June 2021 and 70% down from the record high of $457.80 reached in September 2022.
Trading Economics analysis explains that China's subdued economic recovery and high inventory levels are reducing its need for imports.
Europe is also consuming less coal because natural gas prices are falling.
Where is the coal price going?
In a word, down. Well, at least from FY24.
As we recently reported, a five-year outlook published by the Department of Industry and Resources forecasts both metallurgical and thermal coal prices to fall between FY24 and FY28.
This doesn't bode well for the New Hope share price and other ASX coal stocks.
Government projections for metallurgical & thermal coal prices
Metallurgical
- FY22: US$387 per tonne
- FY23: US$296 per tonne
- FY28: US$185 per tonne
Thermal
- FY22: US$245 per tonne
- FY23: US$313 per tonne
- FY28: US$103 per tonne
New Hope share price outperforms in 2023
In the year to date, the New Hope share price is the only one of the ASX 200 coal shares in the green.
The others have lost about a fifth of their value, as follows:
- Coronado Resources shares are down 22%
- Whitehaven shares are down 22%
- Yancoal shares are down 19%
- New Hope shares are up 0.7%
The Market Matters team already holds New Hope and says it's a buy when the share price is under $5.
As my colleague Tony recently reported, Market Matters said in a recent memo:
We like New Hope Corporation into current weakness. Market Matters is long and bullish New Hope Corporation in our Active Income Portfolio.
Whitehaven was the fastest grower of the ASX coal stocks in 2022. In fact, it was the best performer of the entire ASX 200. We recently analysed whether it is now back to fair market value.
