Here's an interesting observation about ASX 200 coal shares.
Over the past 12 months, the coal price has fallen by 61% while the share prices of Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) and New Hope Corporation Limited (ASX: NHC) have lifted 32%.
That's kinda strange, given ASX energy shares generally move in tandem with energy commodity prices.
So, if the coal price is falling, ASX 200 coal shares should be falling too because it means those companies will earn less from selling their coal this year.
Case in point: Other ASX 200 coal shares have fallen over the past 12 months.
The Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL) share price and the South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) share price are both down 14% in the past year at the time of writing. The Coronado Global Resources Inc (ASX: CRN) share price is down 40%.
Meantime, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has risen 1.4% over the past 12 months.
So, why are Whitehaven and New Hope shares so far in front of their competitors?
Let's take a look at the books
One clue as to why investors are backing Whitehaven and New Hope shares over the other five major ASX 200 coal shares may be revealed in the revenue figures for FY22.
Pay attention to the annual revenue growth rate shown in brackets.
ASX 200 coal shares FY22 revenue
- Yancoal $10,548 million (up 95% on FY21)
- Whitehaven $4,920 million (up 216%)
- Coronado $3,572 million (up 66%)
- Diversified miner South32 $3,537 million (coal revenue only) (up 208% on FY21)
- New Hope $2,558 million (up 143%).
As we can see here, Yancoal had the highest revenue of these ASX 200 coal shares overall, but Whitehaven, South32, and New Hope — in that order — had the best growth in revenue in FY22.
But what about when we factor in operating costs?
Let's look at earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA).
ASX 200 coal shares FY22 EBITDA
- Yancoal $6,959 million (up 175%)
- Whitehaven $3,060 million (up 1,396%)
- South32 $2,280 million (coal only) (up 1,503%)
- New Hope $1,577 million (up 330%)
- Coronado $1,215 million (up 150%).
Once again, Yancoal had the highest EBITDA of these ASX 200 coal shares overall, but South32, Whitehaven, and New Hope — in that order — had the best growth in EBITDA in FY22.
So, perhaps investors were more interested in buying Whitehaven shares and New Hope shares because of those companies' sales and operational growth while the coal price was booming in 2022.
But South32 was up there too.
Why didn't investors give the South32 share price as much support?
One potential reason might be that South32 is a diversified miner. It produces nickel, aluminium, copper, zinc, and manganese, alongside coal.
So, when the coal price was roaring last year — reaching a peak of about US$460 per tonne in September — perhaps South32 didn't attract as much investor attention as the pure-play ASX 200 coal shares.
What about dividends?
New Hope and Whitehaven are certainly among the biggest ASX 200 dividend payers in recent times.
Over the past 12 months, New Hope shares have paid record fully franked interim and final dividends.
New Hope paid 56 cents per share on 8 November 2022 and 40 cents per share on 3 May 2023.
Based on the current New Hope share price of $5.35, that's a whopping 18% dividend yield.
Over the same period, Whitehaven shares paid 40 cents per share in September 2022 and 32 cents in March 2023.
Based on the current Whitehaven share price of $6.84, that's an impressive 10.5% dividend yield.
These two monster yields are far higher than South32's.
South32 shares paid 20.7 cents per share in September 2022, along with a special dividend of 4.43 cents per share, then another 7.33 cents per share in April 2023.
Based on today's South32 share price of $4.01, that's a yield of 8%.
But Yancoal and Coronado are the biggest payers of these five ASX 200 coal shares at the moment.
Yancoal shares paid 52.71 cents per share in September 2022 and 70 cents per share in April 2023.
Based on the current Yancoal share price of $5.16, that's a yield of 24%.
Over the past 12 months, Coronado Resources shares paid four dividends totalling 33.88 cents.
Based on the current Coronado share price of $1.42, that's also a 24% dividend yield.
Of course, these are trailing dividend yields.
The coal price is on the way down, so all of these ASX 200 coal shares are likely to report lower coal revenue in FY23 and pay lower dividends as a result.
Why has the coal price plummeted 60%?
Newcastle coal futures have fallen 61.45% over the past 12 months to about US$160 per tonne. That's the lowest level since January 2022.
Trading Economics analysis explains that higher global production of coal and weak demand outside China has led to the fall.
China's coal output is up 5.8% year over year (yoy), and India's output is at record levels, up 8.67% yoy.
Where is the coal price headed from here?
As we recently reported, the federal Department of Industry and Resources has released a five-year outlook for coal prices based on current global trends and demand. Here are the forecasts:
Metallurgical & thermal coal prices
Metallurgical
- FY22: US$387 per tonne
- FY23: US$296 per tonne
- FY28: US$185 per tonne.
Thermal
- FY22: US$245 per tonne
- FY23: US$313 per tonne
- FY28: US$103 per tonne.
ASX 200 coal shares in 2023
In the year to date, all of these ASX 200 coal shares, bar South32, are down because of the coal price.
Here are the stats: Coronado Resources shares are down 25.5%, Whitehaven shares are down 22.5%, Yancoal shares are down 10.6%, New Hope shares are down 8.2%, and South32 shares are up 1.8%.
The reason the Whitehaven and New Hope share prices are up by 32% over the past 12 months is simply that they rose the most of the ASX 200 coal shares in 2022.
