Medibank share price sell-off 'excessive': expert

Down 20% since the cyberattack, is it time to buy Medibank shares?

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Key points

  • The Medibank share price went up with most other ASX shares on Friday but remains 20% down since the cyberattack
  • One fund manager says the sell-off has been overdone 
  • Brokerage platform Stake says customers have been buying up big on Medibank shares 

Medibank Private Ltd (ASX: MPL) shares were lifted by broader market momentum on Friday after the United States reported a softer-than-expected inflation number for October.

The Medibank share price finished the session on Friday up 1.79% to $2.84. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finished the day up 2.79% to 7,158 points.

But Friday's surge is likely little comfort to Medibank shareholders. They've seen their investments smashed by almost 20% following news of the cyberattack.

The saga got worse during the week with the cyber thieves publishing a sample of the data on the dark web.

The data includes names, birth dates, contact information, Medicare numbers, and in some cases, individual customer healthcare information.

One fundie says the market has overreacted. Let's hear what he has to say.

Is Medibank a buy?

Martin Conlon, head of Australian equities at Schroders, says cybercrime is "likely to be an ongoing risk for all organisations".

Conlon says:

We believe the scale of the share price reaction in the case of Medibank Private is likely to be excessive.

More broadly, we question whether many companies are accurately assessing the payoff for many technology investments. The cost savings, customer insights and supposed business efficiencies are nearly always highlighted by management in justifying spend.

The increasing reliance of many companies on external providers, vulnerability to price gouging and increasing business complexity receive less attention.

As my colleague Tony reported this week, QV Equities pounced on Medibank shares during the sell-off.

The company is "using the volatility" of today's market to buy undervalued shares with "strong competitive advantage and recurring earnings".

In a note to clients, QV Equities said:

We used the recent volatility to increase our holdings in high-quality companies at attractive prices including Lottery Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLC) and APA Group (ASX: APA).

We also took the opportunity to increase our holding in Medibank Private after its share price fell heavily after a well-publicised cyber-attack on its client database.

ASX investors take advantage of Medicare share price fall

Analyst Eliot Hastie from Australian brokerage platform Stake says their clients have been buying up big on Medibank shares.

As my colleague Bernd reports, Hastie said:

Stake customers have seen this as a buying opportunity, with a 1,426% increase in buys last month, suggesting that many are still positive about Medibank's long-term outlook.

In fact, Medibank saw the biggest change from sales to buys of all Australian stocks in October when compared to September.

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended APA Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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