Why did ASX 200 gold shares have such a top run today?

Gold is making a comeback according to some analysts.

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Key points

  • ASX 200 gold shares charged higher today 
  • The gold price jumped in global markets on Friday and is forging higher today 
  • A weaker US dollar may have led investors to turn to gold

ASX 200 gold shares had a stellar day today amid the rising price of gold.

Gold explorers in the ASX 200 include Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM), and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST).

So let's take a closer look at why these ASX 200 gold miners stormed ahead today.

Gold price falls

Evolution shares leapt 7.73% today while Northern Star shares gained 5.03%. Meanwhile, Newcrest shares rose almost 3%.

The spot gold price is currently up 0.41% to US$1,663.2 an ounce, according to CNBC. It follows on from Friday's session when the gold price jumped 1.8%.

Gold surged in US markets on Friday amid the falling US dollar and treasury yields slipping, Bloomberg reported. Speculation the US Federal Reserve may slow down interest rate hikes saw the US dollar and bond rates selling off. As well, Japan intervened in the market to drive up the Yen, further pushing the US dollar down.

Commenting on the gold price, Oanda senior market analyst Ed Moya said, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Gold is staging a comeback as expectations grow that this next 75 basis-point hike will be the last major one.

The peak of Fed tightening appears to be right around the corner and that is good news for bullion.

Meanwhile, as my Foolish colleague Bernd reported last week, BMO Capital's Roy Townsend is predicting gold prices to remain "fundamentally well-supported" up to 2026. He said:

We have our gold price average of $1,600 an ounce, really not expecting a sharp retracement in prices from where we are today.  And that partly is on inflation remaining stickier for longer, that is also partly on slower growth over the outlook period, and it's also on the elevated geopolitical risk remaining.

Last week, Evolution reported its average realised gold price fell 3% in the September quarter to $2,414 an ounce. Evolution's gold production is scheduled to leap ahead for the remainder of FY23.

Share price snapshot

It hasn't been a good year for ASX gold shares. The Northern Star share price has shed 12% in the past 12 months while Evolution shares have fallen 48%. The Newcrest share price has lost 30% in a year.

For perspective, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has slid nearly 9% over the past 12 months.

Motley Fool contributor Monica O'Shea has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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