The Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) share price was rangebound on Tuesday, closing 0.05% in the green at $95.41.
Rio shares have traced a series of falling peaks since dropping from their high of $127.85 apiece on 3 March.
This has been in almost direct unison with the S&P/ASX 300 Metals and Mining Index (ASX: XMM) over the past six months, as illustrated below.
Image source: Getty Images
What's in store for the Rio share price in FY23?
Pushing the Rio Tinto share price lower is pressure from the iron ore and copper markets these past few months.
Copper, in particular, has fallen drastically from its former highs, after a spectacular run in 2020.
Last week, copper futures fell to their lowest level in 20 months as fears of a global recession continue to grow.
According to commodity strategists at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen, the recent moves in copper came from "[US] dollar strength…that came on top of the recent recession fears, pulling the rug from under the market".
Meanwhile, iron ore prices continue to plummet, having topped highs of US$159 per tonne in March – around the same time as the Rio share price peaked.
Iron ore now trades at US$112 per tonne. Head of commodity strategy at ING Warren Patterson said this comes as both China and "ex-China steel output has also struggled this year".
Below is a graph charting the Rio Tinto share price against the prices for both iron ore (brown) and copper (teal):
Other challenges for the Rio share price
Adding further pressure is a recent wave of COVID-19 lockdowns in China, amid a fresh spike in global cases.
Analysts say this has impacted the iron ore price substantially as China enforces strict lockdowns, affecting demand.
"Relentlessly negative COVID headlines out of Gansu, Guangdong, Henan, Macau, Shanghai and Zhejiang over the weekend will pour ice-cold water over sentiment from Monday onwards," Navigate Commodities said in a note.
The downside in these base metals has also been a net negative for the Rio share price.
Meanwhile, analysts at UBS are neutral on Rio, valuing the miner at $98 per share. Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, is baking in some hefty forward dividends for the company, as my Fool colleague James has reported.
The broker forecasts a $12.55 per share dividend in FY22 from Rio, dropping marginally to $12.25 per share in FY23.
The broker also rates Rio a buy and values the share at a $131 price target. At the current Rio share price, that represents roughly 38% return potential.
