ASX 200 energy shares enjoyed a stellar day on the market today amid a positive outlook for energy exports.
The New Hope Corp Ltd (ASX: NHC) share price closed 7.78% higher on Monday while fellow coal share Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) finished 2.56% ahead. Meanwhile, oil and gas producers Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) gained 2.66% and 3.33% respectively.
The broader S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) pulled ahead 2.62% today.
Let's take a look at what could have been fuelling ASX 200 energy shares today?
Energy export earnings predicted to increase
Australia's resource and energy export earnings are forecast to rise to $419 billion in 2022-23, a new government report reveals. That's another $14 billion on the previous year's earnings.
In a quarterly report, the Department of Industry, Science and Resources said resource and energy earnings would hit a new record between 2022 and 2023. The report said the surge is being driven by high prices, volume gains, and the weak Australian dollar, adding:
The outlook for Australia's mineral exports remains strong, as energy shortages persist and the world economy rebounds from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Specifically, the report highlighted thermal coal prices "remain elevated" due to extreme weather and COVID-19 staff disruptions. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was also cited as a factor contributing to the rise. The department added:
Record prices are expected to see export values reach $39 billion in 2021-22, with a peak in 2022-23 and a subsequent (price-driven) easing to around $31 billion by 2023-24
With regard to gas, the document estimated Australia's LNG export earnings more than doubled from $30 billion between 2020-21 to $70 billion in 2021-22. It further predicted LNG spot prices would reach $84 billion in 2022-23.
Meanwhile, metallurgical coal prices are predicted to peak higher than $60 billion in 2022-23 before pulling back to $41 billion between 2023-24. The report said:
Metallurgical coal prices remain at historic highs, pushed up by supply disruptions and market uncertainties as a result of the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The report also suggested Australian oil export earnings have lifted 81% to $13.5 billion in 2021-22. These earnings are predicted to hit $14.3 billion in 2022-23 before retreating to $12.6 billion.
Share price recap
Woodside shares have gained almost 37% in the past year, while Santos shares are around 5% higher. Meanwhile, Whitehaven shares have soared 141% while the New Hope share price has rocketed almost 100%.
In contrast, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has shed almost 10% in the past year.
