Why did the Fortescue (ASX:FMG) share price have such a lousy month in September?

Some predict the iron ore price could reach as low as US$70 a tonne by the end of the year. This would be a big hit to Fortescue's profits.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) share price went on a disappointing run last month. This comes as the price of iron ore continued to sink amid pressure from Chinese policymakers to reduce dependence on Australia.

While the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 1.05% to 7,260 points today, Fortescue shares are down 1.24% to $14.39 apiece.

A woman with red lipstick and tattoos pulls a face as though the situation is not looking good.

Image source: Getty Images

What's dragging Fortescue shares lower?

Iron ore is currently fetching US$115.76 a tonne, plunging 19% since the beginning of September.

The Fortescue share price has trodden along the same lines, falling 30% over the same time.

Chinese lawmakers introduced new rules for its steel producers in an effort to curb reliance on Australian iron ore. Steel mills were instructed to limit 2021 output to no more than 2020 levels, or face penalties.

China wants its steel industry to halt iron ore production at roughly 1 billion tonne for 2021. Consequently, Chinese crude steel production has dropped 8% in July and 13% in August. September figures are still being compiled.

Nonetheless, the result has led the price of iron ore to shrink. And fears are mounting that it could reach as low as US$70 by the end of the year. This would essentially cut more than half of Fortescue's profits when it was enjoying above US$200 for iron ore.

In addition, broader market weakness has been a hindrance on Fortescue shares. The ASX 200 benchmark index dropped about 3.2% in a month, and 4.6% off its record high of 7,632.8 points.

Fortescue share price snapshot

Up until the end of July, Fortescue shareholders were enjoying strong gains, hitting an all-time high of $26.58 apiece. That all came crashing down in the last two months, with its shares touching a low of $14.15 in late September.

Comparing to this time last year, Fortescue shares are down 10%, with year-to-date losses reaching 40%.

On valuation metrics, Fortescue commands a market capitalisation of roughly $44.86 billion and has approximately 3.1 billion shares on issue.

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Resources Shares

A wad of $100 bills of Australian currency lies stashed in a bird's nest.
Dividend Investing

How many Rio Tinto shares do I need to buy for $10,000 a year in passive income?

Rio Tinto shares have a lengthy track record of paying two fully franked dividends a year.

Read more »

A female miner wearing a high vis vest and hard hard smiles and holds a clipboard while inspecting a mine site with a colleague.
Resources Shares

BHP shares vs Woodside shares: Which is the better buy?

Oil and copper are both important commodities, but I think one gives investors a more compelling long-term opportunity.

Read more »

Two workers working with a large copper coil in a factory.
Resources Shares

How high does Morgan Stanley think BHP shares will go?

Copper is the key to further growth in the BHP share price.

Read more »

A happy construction worker or miner holds a fistful of Australian dollar notes.
Resources Shares

Buying BHP shares today? Here's the dividend yield you'll get

Have BHP's dividends taken a back seat?

Read more »

A group of people push and shove through the doors of a store, trying to beat the crowd.
Resources Shares

Why this ASX 200 mining stock is sinking 6% today

Investors are taking profits after a huge run.

Read more »

Machinery at a mine site.
Record Highs

Rio Tinto shares hit fresh all-time high. Can they keep going?

The miner's shares have continued rallying higher on Thursday.

Read more »

A woman is very excited about something she's just seen on her computer, clenching her fists and smiling broadly.
Resources Shares

Up 152% in a year, guess which ASX All Ords silver share is leaping again on 'bonanza-grade' results

Investors are piling into the ASX silver share today. But why?

Read more »

Pile of copper pipes.
Resources Shares

Why has this ASX copper stock surged to a new 12-month high?

Big news has these shares on the move.

Read more »