Two leading ASX 200 shares tipped to outperform: analyst

Retail landlords are eagerly awaiting the reopening.

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A businessman points to and arrow going up on a graph, indicating a share price rise for an ASX company

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 11% over the past 6 months. Another very strong period as the companies continue to recover from the initial hits of the pandemic.

Of course, not all ASX 200 shares are created equal.

Some have gained far more than 11% while others have underperformed the index over the half year.

Below we look at 2 ASX 200 shares, one that’s outperformed and another that’s lagged the index.

They have a few things in common though.

First, they’re both multi-billion-dollar Aussie real estate owners and managers.

Second, they’ve both been upgraded to ‘buy’ ratings by investment advisory group Jarden, which sees strong potential gains ahead.

This ASX 200 share tipped for more outperformance

The first of the ASX 200 shares rated as a ‘buy’ by Jarden analysts Lou Pirenc and Andy MacFarlane is Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC). Charter Hall is an integrated property group that manages both ASX-listed and unlisted property funds.

As the Australian Financial Review reports, Jarden believes Charter Hall “could deliver a 15.5 per cent total return to its investors” over the coming year. According to the analysts:

We continue to be supportive of the dedicated fund managers, as ongoing assets under management growth, strong demand from co-investors, fund performance and investment capacity should drive superior growth.

The Charter Hall share price is up 51% over the past 6 months. At the current share price of $18.11, it pays an annual dividend yield of 2.1%, 39% franked.

Australia’s largest listed retail landlord

Jarden analysts are broadly bullish on ASX real estate investment trusts (REITs) for the year ahead, pointing to increased investor confidence on a reopening rebound.

In a note, quoted by the AFR, they wrote:

We appreciate the structural pressures from online and cost inflation but believe the market is underestimating the growth and rerating potential from gross [rent] collection levels to return to pre-COVID levels.

Which brings us to the second of the ASX 200 shares tipped to outperform.

Namely, Scentre Group (ASX: SCG), the owner and operator of Westfield shopping centres across Australia and New Zealand.

Jarden has upgraded Scentre to a ‘buy’ rating. The analysts forecast a 24.9% total return over the coming 12 months. That includes a 5.1% dividend yield, unfranked.

The Scentre share price is flat over the past 6 months, currently trading at $2.87 per share.

But if Jarden has it right, both these ASX 200 shares could see their share prices significantly higher this time next year.

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The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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