ASX 200 construction share warns of bleak outlook for the sector

Homebuilder and building products company Fletcher Building Limited (ASX: FBU) provided a COVID-19 market update this morning and issued a warning on property and jobs.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

This morning, home builder and building products company Fletcher Building Limited (ASX: FBU) provided a market update on trading conditions in the wake of COVID-19.

The Fletcher Building share price is down more than 3% at the time of writing, however, its commentary on the outlook for the Australian building market may be of more interest to many investors.

For those unfamiliar with the company, Fletcher Building is an S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) share that operates across the entire building supply chain – from raw materials right through to construction. It's headquartered in New Zealand and is dual-listed on the NZX.

What did Fletcher Building announce?

This morning, Fletcher Building disclosed that it generated virtually zero revenue from its New Zealand operations during the country's level 4 restrictions. These restrictions began in late March and remained in place through to late April. On a more positive note, revenue from its Australian business ran at around 90% of pre-COVID-19 expectations.

While Australia at least managed to break even, Fletcher Building's New Zealand operations reported an operating earnings before interest and tax loss of NZ$55 million for April.

Since New Zealand made the move to level 3 on 28 April, conditions have been improving. The company's New Zealand businesses are trading at around 80% of forecasted revenues in May. Australia continues to trade at around 90% of pre-COVID-19 expectations.

Bracing for impact

Commenting on COVID-19 and its impact on Fletcher Building's markets in New Zealand and Australia, CEO Ross Taylor said:

While there is a lot of uncertainty over the economic outlook, we expect COVID-19 will lead to a sharp downturn in FY21 and potentially beyond. Looking to the next financial year, we are planning for an environment that will see a shrinking economy, substantially reduced customer demand across all our businesses and sustained lower levels of productivity.

As a result, the company will look to reduce its workforce by approximately 10% – around 1,000 positions in New Zealand and 500 in Australia – in order to get ahead of the anticipated slump in construction activity.

According to Mr Taylor, prior to COVID-19, residential approvals in Australia had been showing signs of renewed growth from a base of around 150,000. However, the company now expects approvals to fall by a further 15% to 129,000 in FY20.

In addition, Fletcher Building is factoring in a 15% decline in the value of commercial work put in place in FY21 due to a reduced project pipeline in the private sector. Meanwhile, it also expects a 10% drop in infrastructure spending as new projects take time to ramp-up.

What does this mean for ASX construction shares?

On the whole, Fletcher Building's market outlook certainly paints a bleak picture of the near-term state of our economy and housing market. It's also a warning to other ASX construction and building products shares like Boral Limited (ASX: BLD), CSR Limited (ASX: CSR), and Adelaide Brighton Ltd (ASX: ABC).

Recently, Boral reported subdued concrete volumes and revenue for the 4 months ended April 2020. Meanwhile, CSR released its full-year FY19 results last week and assured investors it is monitoring lead indicators to allow for an adjustment in production and cost profile as early as possible. 

In any case, a shrinking economy and significant pullback in construction activity will put pressure on the share prices of ASX construction shares until the sector shows sustained signs of improvement.

Fletcher Building's decision to reduce its workforce also serves as a reminder that while thousands of jobs were saved at the height of the pandemic, they can still be lost during the recovery phase.

Motley Fool contributor Cathryn Goh has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Coronavirus News

Man with his hand on his face looking at a falling share price chart on a tablet.
Share Market News

ASX 200 stocks dive 2.4% in worst trading day since Ukraine crisis hit

It's not a good start to the week for the market.

Read more »

A woman looks nervous and uncertain holding a hand to her chin while looking at a paper cut out of a plane that she's holding in her other hand. representing the falling Air New Zealand share price today
Travel Shares

Borders just reopened so why is the Flight Centre (ASX:FLT) share price falling today?

Experts believe it may take several years for tourism levels to rebound to pre-pandemic numbers.

Read more »

A worker in hi vis gear holds his hand up saying no.
Coronavirus News

Own BHP (ASX:BHP) shares? Here's how the ASX 200 miner is battling COVID

Mining unions have not generally supported mandatory vaccinations.

Read more »

Female worker sitting desk with head in hand and looking fed up
Coronavirus News

Here's what Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) boss says is 'causing some challenges' right now

The Omicron variant is spreading in Western Australia.

Read more »

A man wearing a mask punches the air with joy after getting a negative COVID result on a rapid antigen test.
Coronavirus News

Why are ASX COVID test shares climbing today?

COVID-19 tests are in focus again today.

Read more »

a girl stands in an apple orchard holding two red apples in raised arms with a happy, celebratory look on her face with a large smile and a pretty country background to the picture.
Economy

CBA reveals the Australian economy's leading state amid COVID surge

The states and territories have all been impacted by the pandemic.

Read more »

Rapid Antigen Test taking place.
Share Market News

Why is Ellume hitting headlines today?

Brisbane-based diagnostics developer Ellume is back in the headlines.

Read more »

A woman looks quizzical as she looks at a graph of the share market.
Share Market News

Inghams (ASX:ING) share price sinks as Omicron bites

Inghams shares are down as COVID hurts its operations.

Read more »