Why SEEK Limited may struggle in 2018 after its 25% surge

SEEK Limited (ASX:SEK) has given shareholders plenty to smile about this year but the stock could be in for a more difficult time in 2018.

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The share price of SEEK Limited (ASX: SEK) has increased by a quarter since the start of the calendar year, making it one of the best performing large caps on the S&P/ASX 200 (Index:^AXJO) (ASX:XJO).

That should give shareholders plenty of reasons to smile even though the returns of the online jobs classifieds company are a little behind its peers like Carsales.Com Ltd (ASX: CAR) with a 30.8% gain and REA Group Limited (ASX: REA) with its 44% surge.

But is the party for Seek coming to an end even as management issued a profit upgrade at its annual general meeting yesterday?

There are reasons to think the stock will at best be treading water in the short to medium term after management upped its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) growth to ~13% from ~10% for FY18, thanks to its ANZ Employment, OES and Seek Asia businesses.

However, it kept its net profit constant due to significant increases in below-the-line costs, according to Citigroup. These costs include share-based payments, depreciation, amortisation, and interest charges.

What's more, the broker notes that capital expenditure is increasing and Seek will need to increase EBITDA by 6% just to keep net profit flat in FY19.

The broker also suspects that Seek has skewed its guidance by cutting back on operating expenses in the short-term to offset the below-the-line costs, and is urging investors to sell the stock as it is substantially above its price target of $14.25.

Sure, not all brokers have such a dim view on the stock.

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) is still bullish on Seek as it notes the company's strong operational outlook from "continued cyclical strength of the Australian market with job ad volumes up 13.4% financial year to date (FYTD)".

Further, the strong job ad volumes have persisted and the broker believes November will show another strong month.

However, it's interesting to note that Macquarie's 12-month price target on Seek is $18.70, which is where the stock finished yesterday. The broker has kept its "outperform" call on the stock.

There are tech stocks with a clearer value proposition that are probably worth considering before Seek. The experts at the Motley Fool have identified three that should be on your watchlist for 2018. Click on the free link below to find out what these stocks are.

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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