Newcrest Mining Limited sinks as gold price outlook darkens

Credit: Szaaman

Although the S&P/ASX 200 (Index: ^AXJO) (ASX: XJO) is pushing higher for the seventh successive session, there is one group of shares heading the other way today.

That group is the Australian gold miners of EVOLUTION FPO (ASX: EVN), Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM), Resolute Mining Limited (ASX: RSG), and St Barbara Ltd (ASX: SBM). They are all down by around 2% in afternoon trade, following a recent drop in the gold price.

Today the price of gold is down to US$1,327 per troy ounce, which is around 3.5% lower than its post-Brexit high. This doesn’t come as a huge surprise considering financial markets across the world appear to have well and truly moved on from the Brexit now.

In some cases markets have even reached new all-time highs as investor confidence returns and risk sentiment rises. Moving forward I feel this risk-on sentiment could put downward pressure on the risk-off assets like gold, treasury bonds, and the Japanese yen.

This in turn could mean some of the shares of Australia’s biggest gold miners face similar selling pressure, which might make it an opportune time for investors to reduce their exposure to gold in my opinion.

Although Australia’s gold miners are extremely well run and have some of the lowest all-in sustaining costs in the world, I feel it is likely that they have been valued on potential outsized profits which a drop in the gold price could impede.

After such strong returns so far this year, I fear gold shares could have a long way to fall if the gold price does take a sharp move down. Resolute Mining for example has climbed almost 500% this year and could be at risk of steep declines in my opinion.

Of course, the Brexit and the current US earnings season have the potential to upset the markets again in the coming weeks and months. A return of market volatility would most probably be a boost to the gold price, but it’s not a gamble I am willing to make right now.

Instead of risking $10k with the gold miners, I would recommend reading how this man turned a $10k investment into $8 million. Definitely worth a few minutes of your time if you get chance.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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