The shares of Australia's leading gold producers Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM), OceanaGold Corporation (ASX: OGC), Resolute Mining Limited (ASX: RSG), Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), and St Barbara Ltd (ASX: SBM) look set to climb higher today after the US Federal Reserve opted to keep its rates on hold once again.
Leading up to the meeting the spot gold price had dropped as low as US$1,310 an ounce, but once the announcement was made it jumped higher by around 2% and currently sits at US$1,332 an ounce.
I wouldn't get too excited about the news though. The vote to keep rates on hold was far from unanimous, with three members of the committee voting to raise rates at this meeting according to the Federal Reserve's press release.
According to Bloomberg this is the most dissenters at a Federal Reserve meeting in over two years and certainly has the market believing that a rate increase is coming. Especially with Janet Yellen stating that the case for raising rates has strengthened.
But with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for a week prior to the US election, most economists believe the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise rates then. December looks to be the one, with the probability of a hike at the December meeting increasing to 54% now.
In my opinion today's announcement is a stay of execution for the likes of Newcrest and St Barbara and I believe it is inevitable that rates will rise in the United States in the next two months.
A few months ago a research note out of Citi revealed that its analysts were predicting a rate rise could start the price of gold on a path down to US$1,000 an ounce. As efficient and profitable as Newcrest is, a gold price at this level would certainly prove difficult to swallow.
Whilst the gold producers might be a good option for traders over the next couple of months, personally I feel investors would be better off looking elsewhere in the market.
