ASX reporting season recently finished. This gave analysts the chance to update their views on businesses, including share price targets.

I'm going to talk about two businesses that analysts suggest could deliver returns of at least 40% or more in the next 12 months.

Macquarie Technology Group Ltd (ASX: MAQ)

This ASX share describes itself as an Australian data centre, cloud, cybersecurity and telecom operator for government and mid-to-large business customers. It aims to provide the best customer services in Australia.

According to CMC Markets, there have been five ratings on the business within the last three months, with four of those being a buy. The average price target is $83.24, suggesting a possible rise of 50% over the next year.

One of the company's core attractions is that how 95% of its revenue has come from contracted monthly recurring revenue.

The ASX share is heavily investing to unlock future earnings – in FY26 its capital expenditure was $230.5 million, including $186.2 for IC3 SuperWest). In the coming years, its earnings should grow as a result of these investments.

Despite the investing, its underlying operating profit (EBITDA) grew by 2% to $115.9 million during FY26. The EBITDA is expected to rise again, though modestly, in FY27 with IC3 SuperWest phase 1 revenue starting in the second half of FY27.

Mader Group Ltd (ASX: MAD)

The other ASX share I'll highlight is Mader. It describes itself as a global leader in the provision of specialist technical services across multiple industries.

Its labour market platform allows it to connect a global network of over 520 customers to a skilled in-house workforce of approximately 4,500 personnel on flexible, fit for purpose and cost-effective terms.

According to CMC Invest, there has been three analyst ratings on the business within the last three months, with all of those ratings being a buy. The average price target of those three ratings is $8.86, suggesting a possible rise of 42% over the next 12 months.

FY26 was a solid year of growth for the business, with 15% revenue growth to $1 billion and net profit after tax (NPAT) growth of 15% to $65.4 million. Plus, its balance sheet's net debt improved by $44 million, resulting in a net cash position of $35.7 million.

In FY27, the business expects to grow by at least 13% to $1.13 billion, with net profit of at least $72.5 million (that's 11% growth).

Double-digit growth is a strong level of expansion given the current economic climate.

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What did Mader Group report?

• Revenue of $1,001.1 million, up 15% on the prior corresponding period (PCP)
• NPAT of $65.4 million, a 15% increase versus last year
• EBITDA of $120.7 million, rising 10% year on year
• Net cash position of $35.7 million, compared to net debt of $8.3 million in FY25
• No final dividend declared for FY26

What else do investors need to know?

Mader Group's Australian business continued to grow, with services expanding across infrastructure and road transport. High-growth verticals and a strong market presence helped drive a 16% revenue increase in Australia.

In North America, revenue rose 12% (or ~17% in constant currency), supported by record headcount and expanding operations, especially in Canada. The Rest of World segment remains strategically important, with new business pursued in regions like New Zealand and Asia.

The company reported a Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate of 3.65 per million hours and invested further in safety initiatives and community engagement, including support for events like the Mader Port to Pub and partnerships with Ronald McDonald House Charities and local Indigenous businesses.

What did Mader Group management say?

Executive Director & Chief Executive Officer Justin Nuich said:

I'm proud to announce that we have surpassed $1 billion in annual revenue, marking the successful delivery of the five-year strategic plan established by the Board in 2021… Achieving this milestone is a reflection of our people, our customers and a business model that continues to perform at scale… Looking ahead, with a strong culture, diversified service offering, and a scalable global platform, we are well-positioned to build on this momentum, capture the opportunities in front of us and continue to deliver long-term value for our shareholders.

What's next for Mader Group?

The outlook for FY27 is upbeat, with Mader targeting at least $1.13 billion in revenue and NPAT of $72.5 million—growth of 13% and 11%, respectively. The company is investing in new service lines, growth initiatives, and an expanded long-term incentive program to underpin its ambition for approximately 15% compound annual growth over the next five years.

While no FY26 dividend was declared, the board continues to review capital allocation, and management remains focused on expanding Mader's capabilities, strengthening its position in key markets, and supporting sustainable long-term growth.

Mader Group share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Mader Group shares have declined 13%, trailing the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO), which has risen 1% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

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Over the long term, Mader Group has been one of the best ASX industrials stocks to own. It has risen more than 700% in the last 5 years. 

While Mader Group has experienced significant volatility so far in 2026, a new report from Bell Potter suggests there could be brighter days ahead. 

Mader Group is a maintenance services company contracting to the resources sector. The company specifically provides specialised labour to maintain and repair heavy mobile and plant equipment.

Here is the latest guidance from Bell Potter.

Entering FY27 with tailwinds

In a report released yesterday, the broker said this ASX industrials stock is benefiting from strong growth in Western Australia's iron ore sector. 

This is driving demand for its heavy mobile equipment (HME) maintenance services.

Key points from the Bell Potter report:

• WA iron ore production increased 6% year-on-year in the March 2026 quarter, signalling higher mining activity.
• WA diesel consumption (a proxy for mining activity) rose 7% YoY in February 2026.
• The Australian Government forecasts iron ore production growth of 2.8% annually across FY26-27, compared with flat growth over FY23-25.
• This is positive for Mader Group because its core business services mining equipment fleets used in iron ore operations.

We believe upside to consensus revenue growth rates in FY27-28 is dependent on MAD's ability to diversify into new adjacent markets while expanding existing verticals.

Looking at the US market, the broker said market conditions across the region appear robust. 

MAD's initiatives to accelerate labour deployment will be key to delivering higher revenue growth rates in the short-term (vs consensus expectations).

The broker noted it anticipates the ASX industrials stock will announce its next five-year growth strategy before its FY26 result update, representing a potential re-rate catalyst.

Buy rating unchanged 

Bell Potter has retained its buy recommendation on this ASX industrials stock. 

It also has a price target of $9.70, which indicates an upside potential of approximately 25%. 

MAD is screening relatively undervalued compared with its historical multiples. We see MAD's risk-reward as attractive considering: 1) favourable market conditions are conducive of upgrades (the FY27 NPAT guidance is a forthcoming upgrade catalyst); and 2) announcement of the 5-year growth strategy may bolster short-to-medium term earnings expectations.

Bell Potter isn't the only broker tipping upside for this ASX industrials stock. 

5 analyst forecasts via TradingView have an average price target of $9.27 on the company, indicating roughly 20% upside. 

The post This ASX industrials stock just jumped 4% in a single day and is tipped to keep climbing appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That is the story Mader Group Ltd (ASX: MAD) has been writing for the past five years — and the next chapter may be just as interesting.

A five-year run most investors missed

Mader is not a household name. It does not appear in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO). It does not benefit from analyst coverage on every broker desk. What it does have is a clear, repeatable business model: deploying highly skilled technicians to maintain and repair heavy mobile equipment for mining and energy clients across Australia, North America, and beyond.

That asset-light, people-first model has driven a share price return of more than 700% over the past five years — outperforming the ASX 200 by a wide margin. Investors who backed Mader early have more than eight times their original capital, not counting dividends received along the way.

That kind of performance is rare. It does not happen by accident.

The sideways stretch 

Since September 2025, the share price has largely marked time. For investors watching the ticker, this can feel frustrating. For long-term holders, it may simply be a pause.

Mader's first-half FY26 result showed net profit after tax of $30.5 million, up 17% on the prior corresponding period. Revenue continued to track higher across its Australian and North American divisions, reflecting sustained demand for maintenance services. On the face of it, the business is still growing.

The headline surprise came elsewhere. Management chose not to declare an interim dividend, opting instead to accelerate the company's pathway to a net cash position. The stated goal: strengthen the balance sheet before pursuing a more aggressive approach to organic and inorganic growth opportunities.

Markets reacted. Mader shares fell sharply on the day of the result before clawing back most of those losses. That intraday reversal is worth noting. Cooler heads, on reflection, appeared to separate the dividend decision from what the business itself was actually doing.

Deferring a dividend to reduce debt is not the same as cutting it because earnings are falling. Capital allocation decisions and operational performance are different conversations.

The case for patience now

Broker Bell Potter sees value in Mader at current levels. Following the half-year result, the broker upgraded the shares to a buy rating with a price target of $9.70, implying potential upside of around 23% at time of writing.

The reasoning: North America and Australia profitability is expected to improve in the second half of FY26 as revenue lifts faster than the respective cost bases. 

Labour recruitment and deployment remain the primary constraint on faster growth, particularly in North America. That is a real risk. Execution risk also exists when companies pursue both organic expansion and acquisitions simultaneously.

But Mader has navigated this balance before. Its workforce model is built around culture and retention, which has historically supported contract wins and margin performance. The shift toward net cash would also give management considerably more firepower when the right acquisition opportunity presents itself.

The Foolish takeaway

Five years ago, Mader was a small, under-the-radar mining services company. Today it is a diversified, internationally expanding business with a strong track record and a deliberate growth strategy. The share price reflects that journey — but the sideways drift since September 2025 suggests the market is still in a wait-and-see posture.

If profits continue to grow and the balance sheet strengthens as management expects, that posture may not last. As with the best long-term compounders, the reward for patience can arrive quietly — and quickly. The key risk is that execution in North America and on the acquisition front falls short of expectations. For investors with a long enough horizon, Mader remains one of the more intriguing stories on the ASX.

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Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here's why they are falling:

Domino's Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP)

The Domino's share price is down 12% to $19.11. This follows the release of the pizza chain operator's half-year results. Domino's posted a 1.6% decline in network sales to $2.04 billion but a 1% lift in underlying EBIT to $101.5 million. One positive was that the Domino's board decided to reward shareholders with a 25 cents per share interim dividend. This was up 16.3% on the prior corresponding period. Executive Chairman Jack Cowin said: "These results reflect deliberate decisions taken as part of our reset to strengthen the foundations of the business, prioritising an increase in franchise partner profitability."

Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT)

The Flight Centre share price is down 2.5% to $12.94. Investors have been selling the travel agent's shares after it released its half-year results. Flight Centre reported a 6% increase in revenue to $1.41 billion and a 4% lift in underlying profit before tax to $125 million. Investors may be doubting that the company will be able to achieve its reaffirmed profit guidance based on its first-half performance.

Mader Group Ltd (ASX: MAD)

The Mader share price is down a further 5% to $8.06. This specialist technical services provider's shares have come under pressure since the release of its half-year results this week. Mader revealed net profit after tax of $30.5 million. While this was an increase of 17% over the prior corresponding period, it was short of expectations due to weaker than expected margins. In addition, its board decided to not pay a dividend in order to reduce debt. It said: "The Group has accelerated its pathway to a net cash position by deferring the 1H FY26 interim dividend, bringing forward achievement of its net cash target and strengthening liquidity to support a more aggressive approach to organic and inorganic growth opportunities."

Paragon Care Ltd (ASX: PGC)

The Paragon Care share price is down 11% to 18.2 cents. The catalyst for this decline has been the healthcare distributor's half-year results release. Paragon Care reported a modest 2.9% increase in revenue and a 0.7% rise in underlying net profit to $13.3 million. In addition, the company has taken a full provision ($46.4 million) against its Infinity Pharmacy Group debt. It notes: "The Infinity Group of 92 Pharmacy stores had incurred significant debt to acquire new pharmacies, resulting in an inability to pay suppliers and creditors, which resulted in Receivers being appointed to 52 pharmacies, and Administrators appointed over the remainder of stores."

The post Why Domino's, Flight Centre, Mader, and Paragon Care shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That's the view of analysts at Bell Potter, who are tipping it as a buy following its half-year results.

Which ASX All Ords stock?

The stock in question is Mader Group Ltd (ASX: MAD).

It is a leading provider of specialised contract labour for maintenance of heavy mobile equipment in the resources and civil industries.

As well as its core market, Bell Potter notes that it is currently pursuing growth opportunities in large addressable markets. This includes in the United States mining and energy markets.

Bell Potter highlights that Mader's performance in the first half of FY 2026 was slightly softer than expected due to weaker margins. However, improvements are expected in the second half. It said:

MAD delivered Group revenue of $485m (BPe $488m), up 18% YoY. At the divisional level, Australia revenue was $385m (BPe $384m), up 19% YoY, North America delivered revenue of $90m (BPe $91m), up 13% YoY, and RoW revenue was $10.6m (BPe $12.6m), up 36% YoY. Group EBITDA of $56.2m (BPe $61.0m) grew 9% YoY, with weaker than expected margins across the segments: Australia 11.1% (vs BPe 12.1%); North America 17.0% (vs BPe 19.1%); and RoW 14.2% (vs BPe 16.0%).

Australia and North America profitability is anticipated to improve in 2H FY26 as revenue lifts quicker than the respective segment's cost bases. The interim dividend was deferred to bring forward achievement of net cash (excluding leases) to support the company's financial position before it embarks on a "more aggressive approach to organic and inorganic growth opportunities.

Should you invest?

The broker sees value in the ASX All Ords stock at current levels. In response to its results, the broker has upgraded its shares to a buy rating with an improved price target of $9.70 (from $9.00).

Based on its current share price of $8.16, this implies potential upside of 19% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, the broker said:

Our Target Price lifts on a roll forward of our segment DCF models and a lower WACC. The 1H FY26 result puts MAD on track to achieve FY26 NPAT guidance of >$65.0m (BPe $67.3m new; VA $67.6m). MAD continues to expand rapidly into adjacent markets in Australia and convert well on business development opportunities across North America, with labour recruitment and deployment into the region the key constraint. Disclosure of MAD's next 5-year strategy represents a near-term catalyst.

The post Bell Potter says this ASX All Ords stock is a top buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

After releasing its 1H FY26 result, the share price plunged as much as 15% in early trade before clawing back most of those losses to finish the session down just over 3%. That kind of intraday swing usually signals something dramatic.

In this case, the numbers looked more like business as usual.

What does Mader actually do?

Mader is a global provider of specialised maintenance services to the mining, energy and industrial sectors. It supplies skilled technicians who maintain and repair heavy mobile equipment, often working onsite in remote locations.

The ASX small-cap has built its reputation on a scalable workforce model. Instead of owning large fleets of equipment, Mader deploys highly trained personnel where they are needed. That asset-light structure has historically supported solid margins and strong cash generation when demand is steady.

Its growth strategy has combined organic expansion with selective acquisitions, particularly offshore, as it pushes deeper into North America and other international markets.

A steady set of numbers

According to its 1H FY26 result, Mader delivered net profit after tax of $30.5 million, up 17% on the prior corresponding period

Revenue and earnings continued to track higher, reflecting ongoing demand for maintenance services across its key markets. On the face of it, this was not a half-year marked by collapsing margins or vanishing contracts.

The headline surprise was elsewhere.

Management chose not to declare an interim dividend. Instead, the company said it would defer the first half interim payout to accelerate its pathway to a net cash position and strengthen liquidity.

In its words, this move would bring forward the achievement of its net cash target and support a more aggressive approach to organic and inorganic growth opportunities.

For income-focused investors, the absence of a dividend can feel like a red flag. Markets often react quickly to that signal, even when profitability is still rising.

When sentiment runs ahead of substance

The initial 15% sell-off suggests some investors interpreted the dividend decision as a sign of stress.

Yet the profit line moved in the opposite direction.

This is where markets can occasionally behave less like weighing machines and more like voting machines, at least in the short term. A single headline can overwhelm the broader context, especially when it challenges expectations.

By the close of trade, the share price had recovered much of its losses. That intraday reversal hints that cooler heads may have revisited the actual numbers rather than just the dividend line item.

It is worth remembering that deferring a dividend to reduce debt is not the same as cutting it due to falling earnings. One speaks to capital allocation priorities. The other can point to operational weakness.

Looking beyond the ticker tape

None of this means the market is wrong. Investors may reasonably question whether accelerating toward a net cash position will ultimately translate into higher long-term returns. Execution risk always exists when companies pursue both organic growth and acquisitions.

However, the broader principle remains important.

Short-term price action often reflects emotion and expectations. Underlying business performance, on the other hand, is measured in revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength.

For the ASX small-cap, the first half of FY26 showed rising net profit and a strategic decision around capital management.

Whether the market continues to view that through a sceptical or supportive lens will likely depend on what the company delivers next.

For long-term investors, moments of volatility can be a reminder to focus less on a single day's price swing and more on what the business itself is actually doing behind the scenes.

The post The market might be pricing this growing ASX small-cap like it's broken appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are dropping:

ARB Corporation Ltd (ASX: ARB)

The ARB share price is down 15.5% to $20.76. This follows the release of the after-market automotive parts manufacturer's half-year results. ARB reported a 1% decline in sales revenue to $358 million and a 17.2% decline in profit after tax to $42.2 million. Looking ahead, management advised that it expects sales margins in the second half to be broadly in line with the prior corresponding period. It also advised that its order book remains healthy and investment in new stores and ecommerce continues.

Austal Ltd (ASX: ASB)

The Austal share price is down 11% to $5.00. This appears to have been driven by a broker out of Citi this morning. According to the note, the broker has downgraded this shipbuilder's shares to a sell rating with a reduced price target of $4.50 (from $6.90). Even after today's heavy decline, this still implies potential downside of 10% for investors over the next 12 months.

Mader Group Ltd (ASX: MAD)

The Mader share price is down 10% to $7.97. This follows the release of the specialist technical services provider's half-year results. Mader revealed net profit after tax of $30.5 million, which was an increase of 17% over the prior corresponding period. Despite this, the company decided to not pay a dividend in order to reduce debt. It said: "The Group has accelerated its pathway to a net cash position by deferring the 1H FY26 interim dividend, bringing forward achievement of its net cash target and strengthening liquidity to support a more aggressive approach to organic and inorganic growth opportunities."

Steadfast Group Ltd (ASX: SDF)

The Steadfast share price is down 4% to $4.26. Investors are selling the insurance broker network company's shares today after it revealed that its long-serving founder-CEO, Robert Kelly AM, is stepping down. Commenting on his exit, Mr Kelly said: "It has been a privilege to play a leadership role in the creation of Steadfast. I am extremely proud of the achievements of the Company; its strong track record clearly demonstrates the strength of the business model and positions the business to deliver sustainable value to our shareholders for many years to come." Mr Kelly co-founded Steadfast in 1996 and led the company's listing on the ASX in August 2013.

The post Why ARB, Austal, Mader, and Steadfast shares are dropping today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

Zip shares have had an unexciting start to 2026 so far, but analysts are bullish that there is plenty of upside left for the ASX financial tech company this year. I certainly think the stock is a screaming buy for 2026.

Zip has posted some robust financial results over the past few quarters and the business has some great growth plans in place for 2026. The company is expected to post its FY26 half-year results next month where investors will find out if the company is still on track. Good news could push the share price quickly higher.

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL)

Coles' growth strategy has paid off. The business was a strong performer overall in 2025. The ASX retailer posted a strong quarterly update in late October, where it reported a 3.9% increase in group sales and quarterly results generally in line with analyst expectations. 

It looks like the supermarket giant could face some headwinds this year as resilient inflation and cost-of-living pressures continue to weigh heavily on Aussie pockets. But the stock is fiercely defensive and the business is now well positioned to remain resilient. I still think the stock is a good buy with some potential ahead this year.

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN)

Qantas and its subsidiary, Jetstar, are adding capacity to their routes this year. The aviation giant said it is also planning to scale AI usage across the business over the coming year.

Analysts at Macquarie think there is plenty more upside to come out of the ASX airline's shares this year. The team recently said that its Jetstar business continues to be a key driver of growth for the business and that there is a "favorable outlook" ahead.

BHP Group (ASX: BHP)

The mining giant reported its first half production update yesterday. Its copper production was flat versus the previous corresponding period, iron ore was up 2%, steelmaking coal production was up 2% and energy coal production up 10%. Management also upgraded parts of its FY 2026 guidance.

The latest update follows strong production figures throughout 2025. It also follows an announcement in December that it has struck up a new US$2 billion infrastructure agreement with Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), an investment group owned by BlackRock. 

Analysts are pretty divided about the stock but I think there is potential for some decent upside for the ASX miner's shares in 2026 if its growth continues.

Mader Group Ltd (ASX: MAD)

Shares in the maintenance services company, which contracts to the resources sector, are in focus this week after analysts at Bell Potter upgraded its rating and target price on the stock (buy, $9.00). The broker said it thinks consensus expectations are conservative and disclosure of the company's 5-year strategy could be a near-term catalyst. 

At the time of writing, Bell Potter's target price implies a 7% upside for the shares over the next 12 months, however some analysts think the ASX stock could rise another 23.66% to $10.40.

The post 5 ASX shares I'd buy with $5,000 this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Three top ASX shares that leading brokers have named as buys this week are listed below. Here's why they are bullish on them:

Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE)

According to a note out of Morgan Stanley, its analysts have upgraded this uranium producer's shares to an overweight rating with a $2.05 price target. The broker sees value in the company's shares at current levels. Particularly given its belief that its Honeymoon operation could outperform production and sales expectations. It also suspects that its costs could be lower than consensus estimates. Outside this, the broker sees a number of potential catalysts on the horizon that could support its shares. This includes updates on the Gould's Dam and Jason deposits. The Boss Energy share price is trading at $1.77 on Monday.

Mader Group Ltd (ASX: MAD)

A note out of Bell Potter reveals that its analysts have upgraded this specialised contract labour provider's shares to a buy rating with a price target of $9.00. The broker made the move on valuation grounds following a sizeable pullback in its share price. It feels this share price weakness offers investors a more attractive risk-reward proposition. Bell Potter also highlights that Mader's outlook is positive thanks to favourable trading conditions in both the Australian and North American markets. Outside this, it feels that the disclosure of the company's next five-year strategy could be a near-term catalyst for its share price. The Mader share price is fetching $8.19 at the time of writing.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

Analysts at UBS have retained their buy rating on this buy now pay later provider's shares with a trimmed price target of $5.20. According to the note, the broker believes that significant share price weakness has created a buying opportunity for investors. It notes that this has been driven partly by an inquiry into the industry. However, there has been good news with President Trump calling for 10% caps on credit card interest rates. It feels that this could mean tighter conditions for credit card lending and push consumers to buy now pay later services. Though, it does concede that a lot will depend on how Zip's fees are interpreted by law makers. The Zip share price is trading at $3.04 on Monday.

The post Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That's the view of analysts at Bell Potter, which have just upgraded the ASX All Ords stock.

What is the broker saying about this ASX All Ords stock?

Bell Potter notes that this specialised contract labour provider's shares have pulled back recently, which it believes has created a buying opportunity. Especially given its belief that the company is poised to benefit from favourable industry conditions both at home and in North America. It said:

The Department of Industry, Science and Resources updated its Australian iron ore production outlook (Dec'25), forecasting CAGR of 2.8% over FY25-28 (prev. 2.5%). Delivery of this growth by industry is a major tailwind for MAD's core Heavy Mobile Equipment and Infrastructure Maintenance service offerings. FY26TD (JulNov'25) WA wholesale diesel consumption was up 2.2% YoY, with a record observed in Oct'25.

WA wholesale diesel consumption correlates very strongly with WA iron ore production. Lastly, the latest financial disclosures of OEMs (Sep'25 quarter) outlined sales and order intake were broadly flat and modestly up, respectively.

Over in North America, Bell Potter believes the ASX All Ords stock could be well-placed for new contract wins. It adds:

Several indicators point to a favourable environment for securing new business across the region. Firstly, our proxy for USA mining complex activity has progressively improved since the 2024 elections, with the index up 4.1% YoY for the period Jul-Nov'25. Secondly, in Canada, MAD's key markets have seen strong YoY production growth over Jul-Oct'25: 4.4% for coal; 15.9% for copper; 10.8% for lime; and 3.0% for oil sands (hard rock).

Lastly, regional OEMs and dealers have generally seen stable-to-improving YoY growth in their respective Product Sales businesses, indicating miner commitments to maintaining and growing fleet. Large Canadian mining dealers have reported mid-single digit to mid-teens YoY revenue growth for their respective Product Support divisions over the Jun'25 and Sep'25 quarters.

Upgraded

In light of the above and recent share price weakness, the broker has upgraded Mader's shares to a buy rating and $9.00 price target.

Based on its current share price of $7.77, this implies potential upside of 16% for investors over the next 12 months.

Bell Potter also expects a modest 1% dividend yield in FY 2026, lifting the total potential return to approximately 17%.

Commenting on the ASX All Ords stock's recommendation upgrade, the broker said:

We upgrade our Recommendation to Buy. The recent retracement in MAD's share price offers investors a more attractive risk-reward proposition, with 17.2% TSR implied by our $9.00/sh Target Price. We maintain the view that consensus expectations are conservative (FY26e NPAT of $67.6m; BPe $69.6m; NPAT guidance >$65.0m). Disclosure of MAD's next 5-year strategy represents a near-term catalyst.

The post Why Bell Potter just upgraded this ASX All Ords share to a buy rating appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to edge lower

The Australian share market looks set for a subdued start to the week following a poor finish to the last one on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 1 point lower. In the United States, the Dow Jones was down 0.15%, the S&P 500 fell 0.05%, and the Nasdaq edged 0.05% lower.

Oil prices rise

It could be a decent start to the week for ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices pushed higher on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was up 0.4% to US$59.44 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was up 0.6% to US$64.13 a barrel. Traders were buying oil in response to multiple supply risks.

Buy Mader shares

Analysts at Bell Potter think investors should be buying Mader Group Ltd (ASX: MAD) shares. This morning, the broker has upgraded the specialised contract labour provider's shares to a buy rating with a price target of $9.00. It made the move on valuation grounds following a pullback. Bell Potter said: "We upgrade our Recommendation to Buy. The recent retracement in MAD's share price offers investors a more attractive risk-reward proposition, with 17.2% TSR implied by our $9.00/sh Target Price. We maintain the view that consensus expectations are conservative (FY26e NPAT of $67.6m; BPe $69.6m; NPAT guidance >$65.0m). Disclosure of MAD's next 5-year strategy represents a near-term catalyst."

Gold price drops

ASX 200 gold shares including Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a soft start to the week after the gold price dropped on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was down 0.5% to US$4,601.1 an ounce. This was driven by a combination of profit-taking from traders and easing geopolitical risks.

Yancoal update

The Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL) share price will be one to watch on Monday. That's because the coal miner is scheduled to release its fourth quarter update today. Management is guiding to 2025 saleable production of 35-39Mt with $89-$97 per tonne cash operating costs. During the third quarter, it was tracking towards the mid-point of both ranges.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in the ASX mining services company have surged by 39% over the last twelve months, closing at $7.94 apiece on Friday.

For context, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) has managed a modest 0.62% gain over the same period.

Despite this strong run, leading Australian investment bank Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) believes there could be even more upside ahead.

Here's why the broker is still seeing blue skies for this ASX mining services business.

Essential technical services provider

Mader is a mining services business with a simple business model focused on providing heavy equipment maintenance services to resource companies.

It was founded in 2005 by current Executive Chairman Luke Mader as a one-man Western Australian business.

Since then, it has expanded its operations to more than 540 locations across nine countries, boasting a workforce of over 3,900 staff who serve more than 490 customers.

Over the years, Mader has cemented its place as a leader in specialist technical services within Australia's globally renowned mining industry.

However, since 2019, it has been expanding into the North American mining and energy sectors.

It believes the market opportunity in North America could be more than twice the size of Australia.

Overall, Mader notched up a record $872 million in total revenue in FY25, with its 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue reaching about 30%.

More specifically, the company generated 79% of its revenue from Australia and 19% from North America during the financial year.

Macquarie's viewpoint on Mader Group

Despite this strong multi-year performance, Macquarie believes the ASX mining services stock could have plenty of room for further growth.

The broker noted that Mader is still underpenetrated in Australia's core mining market, where ageing equipment continues to support maintenance activity.

It added that the company has fast-tracked efforts to replicate its success in adjacent markets such as infrastructure and road transport, as well as its expansion in North America.

As a result, it has forecast Mader's revenue CAGR through to FY28 to come in at about 15%, driven by anticipated commercial successes in the group's core and growth verticals.

Macquarie also believes that Mader boasts superior earnings per share (EPS) growth potential when compared to global and local peers.

Here, it has forecast an EPS CAGR of 17% through to FY28.

The broker also highlighted several other reasons for its positive outlook on the ASX mining services business.

It pointed to the company's strong balance sheet, its reduction in capital intensity, and the group's five-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of about 25%.

All up, Macquarie placed an outperform rating on Mader shares with a 12-month price target of $10.40 per share.

This implies 31% upside potential from $7.94 per share at Friday's close.

The post Expert says this high-flying ASX mining services stock could rocket by 31% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

While some ASX stalwarts like Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) and CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) have seen their share prices wobble on results that fell short of lofty expectations, a couple of quieter small and mid-caps are moving in the opposite direction.

At the time of writing, the Mader Group Ltd (ASX: MAD) share price is back near record highs, while Duratec Ltd (ASX: DUR) share price has surged more than 11% in the past two sessions. Neither company delivered blockbuster surprises in their FY25 earnings, but by meeting guidance and showing steady progress, both have been rewarded with strong share price gains.

Duratec Ltd (ASX: DUR)

Duratec is an engineering services business specialising in asset protection, remediation, and infrastructure maintenance across defence, mining, oil and gas, and industrial sectors.

For FY25, the company delivered revenue of $573 million, up 3.1% compared to the prior year. Operating earnings (EBITDA) rose to $53 million, an increase of 11.3%. Net profit after tax (NPAT) came in at $22.8 million, up 6.5% year-on-year.

Duratec's Managing Director, Chris Oates, commented on the year ahead:

As we move into FY26, Duratec is well positioned to build on this year's momentum. With a robust financial position,  expanding  sector  presence,  and  proven  expertise  in  delivering  technically  complex  projects,  we  are exceptionally  well  placed  to  capitalise on  the  growing  demand  across  all sectors through leveraging  our  cross-subsidiary synergies.

Mader Group Ltd (ASX: MAD)

Mader is a global provider of specialist technical services across mining, energy, and infrastructure.

The company reported record annual revenue of $872.2 million in FY25, up 13% from the prior year. Operating earnings (EBITDA) lifted 10% to $109.5 million, while NPAT rose 13% to $57.1 million. Net debt was cut sharply to $8.3 million, down from $31.2 million (a 73% reduction) a year earlier.

CEO Justin Nuich said:

With record results of in revenue and in  NPAT,  this achievement marks a significant milestone for our business as we enter the final year of our five-year strategic plan with growth momentum and encouraging market conditions.

This year's performance underscores the strength and resilience of our teams and business model as we continue our transformation into a diversified, global technical services leader.  We have expanded our global presence, broadened our customer base, and built deeper capabilities across more industries and geographies than ever before.

Looking ahead, Mader is guiding for FY26 revenue of at least $1 billion and NPAT of at least $65 million, implying further growth of around 14%.

Foolish takeaway

Duratec and Mader's results may not have grabbed headlines, but in a reporting season where several bigger names have disappointed, steady growth has proven to be a winning formula. Investors appear happy to back these industrials as they keep building on solid foundations and set the stage for more expansion in FY26.

The post Why these 2 ASX industrial shares are climbing on 'good, not great' news appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Across Australia and the globe, resource rich regions are alive with constant activity. Excavators dig, trucks haul, and drills operate day and night. Investors in mining giants like BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) ride the ups and downs of commodity prices, hoping the high points will outweigh the inevitable lows.

However, there is another way to gain exposure to the global resources boom without betting on the price of iron ore, copper, or coal.

That is where Mader Group Ltd (ASX: MAD) comes in and as at the time of writing, the share price has climbed more than 30% since the near-end of FY 2025.

What does Mader Group do?

Mader does not mine or explore. It services the machines that do.

The company sends a skilled workforce directly to remote worksites to repair and maintain heavy equipment used in mining, infrastructure, and energy. When machinery stops working, Mader gets it moving again.

Crucially, Mader works across multiple brands and is not tied to any single manufacturer. Its services are often faster and more cost-effective than those of the original equipment manufacturers. That makes Mader the first call for many operators once warranty periods expire.

How the company makes money

Mader operates an asset-light business model focused on people and service. The company does not own the equipment it services. Instead, it builds long-term relationships with mining and infrastructure clients by delivering reliable, high-quality work on demand.

Its core strength lies in its workforce of highly trained technicians and its ability to mobilise quickly. In Australia, Mader is the largest independent maintenance provider to the mining sector. 

When commodity markets slow down, Mader often benefits. It can hire talent let go by miners, expand its market share, and maintain solid margins while competitors retreat.

Solid financial results in 1H FY 2025

Earlier this year, Mader reported record half year revenue of $411.5 million for the first half of FY 2025, up 10% on the prior corresponding period. Profit margins remained steady, with operating earnings (EBITDA) of $51.5 million and net profit after tax of $26 million. The first half result accounted for 46% of the company's full-year NPAT guidance, in line with previous financial year patterns. 

Operations across nine countries were supported by a growing global workforce, which reached more than 3,500 people by the end of the period. That expansion is not slowing down, with the North American market becoming a key growth engine for the group. 

One to keep on the radar

With more than a skilled workforce of technicians, a founder-led culture, and a strong balance sheet, Mader Group has built a business that continues to grow steadily and profitably.

Despite its share price rally in the last two months, the company still flies under the radar for many investors.

It is certainly one to keep an eye on.

The post Forget BHP, this little known gem is roaring 30% in FY 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

If you are, it could pay to listen to what analysts at Bell Potter are saying about a couple of ASX stocks.

Here's why the broker is tipping them as buys right now:

Gentrack Group Ltd (ASX: GTK)

The first ASX stock that gets the thumbs up from Bell Potter is Gentrack. It describes itself as a global technology leader delivering product-to-profit solutions for the leading energy and water utilities.

Bell Potter's analysts believe that Gentrack's shares deserve to trade on a premium valuation. This is due to its strong long term growth potential which is being supported by its global expansion. It explains:

Although it appears expensive at c.40x FY24 and c.30x FY25 EV/EBITDA multiples, we believe the valuation is justified with a long and visible opportunity for revenue growth, as well as margin expansion following investment in headcount to deliver on its pipeline of deployments and integrations in addition to geographic expansion into Asia and EMEA.

Bell Potter has a buy rating and $10.90 price target on its shares. Based on its current share price of $8.91, this implies potential upside of 22% for investors over the next 12 months.

Mader Group Ltd (ASX: MAD)

Another ASX stock that gets the seal of approval from the broker is Mader Group.

It is a leading technical services provider that is a specialist in mobile and fixed plant equipment maintenance and support.

Bell Potter believes the company could be a great option for investors due to the momentum it is seeing in its growth plans and its North American business. It also sees potential for capital returns in the not so distant future. It said:

We expect ongoing earnings growth across the Group in FY25 as MAD's growth ambitions in Australia and North America gather momentum. Overall, commodity prices remain at elevated levels (compared with historical levels for gold and iron ore particularly), supporting mining activity and equipment utilisation.

In Australia, incoming iron ore production growth should support equipment and plant maintenance opportunities. In Canada, a significant expansion of the workforce will see the North American segment become a larger contributor to Group earnings and profitability. The company achieving its medium-term net cash target may drive positive capital management initiatives.

Bell Potter has a buy rating and $6.80 price target on Mader's shares. This suggests that upside of 9% is possible for investors over the next 12 months.

The post Bell Potter says these ASX stocks are top buys appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here's why they are falling:

Dexus (ASX: DXS)

The Dexus share price is down almost 7% to $7.00. This follows the release of an underwhelming full year result and disappointing guidance for FY 2025. The property company posted a 7% decline in adjusted funds from operations and a 7% reduction in its dividend to 48 cents per share. Things look likely to be even worse for dividends in FY 2025, with management guiding to a 23% cut to 37 cents per share. Though, it still equates to an attractive 5.3% dividend yield based on its current share price.

Iress Ltd (ASX: IRE)

The Iress share price is down a further 9% to $9.47. Investors have been selling this investment technology company's shares since the release of its half year results on Monday. While its performance was strong during the half, investors appear to be doubting management's ability to achieve its guidance for the full year and have been heading to the exits.

Mader Group Ltd (ASX: MAD)

The Mader share price is down 12.5% to $5.62. Investors have been hitting the sell button following the release of the specialist technical services provider's full year results. Mader was on form during the 12 months, delivering record sales and profits. However, as strong as its growth was, it was still short of the market's lofty expectations. As was its guidance for FY 2025. For example, management is guiding to revenue of at least $870 million and net profit after tax of at least $57 million. This compares to Bell Potter's estimate of $961 million and $69 million, respectively.

Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL)

The Yancoal share price is down 16.5% to $5.81. After the market close on Monday, this coal miner released its half year results. It reported a 21% decline in revenue to $3.14 billion and a 57% reduction in profit after tax to $420 million. In light of this poor performance, the Yancoal board elected not to declare an interim dividend for FY 2024. Instead, the retained cash will provide flexibility for potential corporate initiatives. Though, it may be used for dividends in the future if not utilised.

The post Why Dexus, Iress, Mader, and Yancoal shares are crashing today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At one stage today, the ASX 300 stock was down as much as 17.5% to a 52-week low of $5.30.

This follows the release of the specialist technical services provider's full year results.

ASX 300 stock sinks on results release

• Total revenue up 27% to a record of $774.5 million
• Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) up 32% to $99.2 million
• Net profit after tax up 31% to a record of $50.4 million
• Total dividends up 34% to 7.8 cents

What happened during the year?

For the 12 months ended 30 June, the ASX 300 stock reported a 27% lift in revenue to a record of $774.5 million. This was ahead of its guidance and driven by growth across multiple industry verticals and geographies.

And thanks to improving margins, Mader's EBITDA increased 32% to $99.2 million and net profit after tax lifted 31% to $50.4 million. This allowed the company to declare a fully franked final dividend of 4 cents per share, which brought its full year dividend to 7.8 cents per share. This is up 34% year on year.

Mader's CEO, Justin Nuich, was pleased with the 12 months. He said:

I'm proud to announce that we have exceeded our revenue and NPAT guidance targets of $770m and $50m respectively. With record results of $774.5m in revenue and $50.4m in NPAT, this achievement marks a significant milestone for our business as we enter the final two years of our current five-year strategic plan.

Our performance this financial year highlights the business' transformation into a diversified, global technical services provider. We now operate in more locations and serve a broader range of customers, across more industries than ever before.

How does this compare to expectations?

On paper, this looks like a very strong result from the ASX 300 stock. So, shareholders may be wondering why its shares are tumbling today. Let's take a look and see how this compares to what analysts are Bell Potter were expecting.

Bell Potter was forecasting sales of $790 million, EBITDA of $103 million, and net profit after tax of $53 million. As you can see above, Mader has fallen short of all these estimates.

But the real damage to its share price may be from its guidance for FY 2025, which is significantly lower than that broker was looking for.

Outlook

Management is guiding to revenue of at least $870 million and net profit after tax of at least $57 million.

This compares unfavourably to Bell Potter's estimate of $961 million and $69 million, respectively, for the 12 months.

In light of this, it isn't overly surprising to see the ASX 300 stock drop into the red today.

The post This ASX 300 stock is crashing 17% despite strong growth and record FY24 profits appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The team at Bell Potter is feeling bullish about them and sees scope for big returns over the next 12 months. Here's what the broker is saying about them:

Austal Ltd (ASX: ASB)

Bell Potter thinks that this shipbuilder could be an ASX All Ords stock to buy now.

Particularly given its record order book and the potential for some big contracts from the Australian Government. It explains:

ASB currently has a record contract book of ~$12.7b AUD, largely consisting of contracts with the US Navy, and was recently announced as the Australian Government's shipbuilder of choice in WA. This deal also included the award of the "Landing Craft (Medium)" vessel program (BPe ~$800m) to ASB, with the likely award of further contracts under the agreement (BPe ~$7b – $10b), providing a deep pipeline of work for the next decade. The company is also a takeover target, with Austal recently rejecting a $2.825 per share takeover offer from Hanwha Ocean Co. and another two North American Private Equity firms speculated to be interested in acquiring the company.

Bell Potter has a buy rating and $2.85 price target on its shares. Based on its current share price, this implies potential upside of 20% for investors.

Mader Group Ltd (ASX: MAD)

Another ASX All Ords stock that the broker is positive on is Mader Group.

Bell Potter believes the mining equipment maintenance company could be a top pick due to the momentum it is seeing in its growth plans and its growing North American business.

The broker also sees potential for capital returns in the near future if things go as planned. It said:

We expect ongoing earnings growth across the Group in FY25 as MAD's growth ambitions in Australia and North America gather momentum. Overall, commodity prices remain at elevated levels (compared with historical levels for gold and iron ore particularly), supporting mining activity and equipment utilisation. In Australia, incoming iron ore production growth should support equipment and plant maintenance opportunities. In Canada, a significant expansion of the workforce will see the North American segment become a larger contributor to Group earnings and profitability. The company achieving its medium-term net cash target may drive positive capital management initiatives.

Bell Potter has a buy rating and $7.60 price target on Mader's shares. This implies potential upside of 26% for investors.

The post Analysts say these ASX All Ords stocks could rise 20%+ appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are dropping:

James Hardie Industries plc (ASX: JHX)

The James Hardie share price is down 2.5% to $47.22. This may have been driven by a broker note out of Citi this morning. Ahead of the company's investor day event, the broker has reaffirmed its neutral rating and $53.40 price target. It appears to believe that trading conditions in the United States aren't particularly favourable for the company at present. This may have spooked investors and caused fears that tomorrow's event will contain some bad news.

Mader Group Ltd (ASX: MAD)

The Mader Group share price is down over 5% to $6.16. This has been driven by news that its founder and executive chair has sold down his stake. Luke Mader sold 9.75 million shares via a buyer-led share crossing at a discount of $6.15 per share. Mader Group advised that the buyer was a tier one global financial services company with over US$2 trillion in assets under management. Mr Mader remains the majority shareholder in the company, retaining 103,697,095 shares. This represents ~52% of Mader's issued capital. In other news, Mader Group has reaffirmed its FY 2024 guidance for revenue of at least $770 million and net profit after tax of at least $50 million.

MMA Offshore Ltd (ASX: MRM)

The MMA Offshore share price is down 2% to $2.64. This morning, this marine and subsea services provider revealed that its suitor, Cyan, has increased its takeover offer by 10 cents per share to a total of $2.70 cash per share. This was just one cent ahead of where its shares were trading yesterday. This appears to indicate that investors were expecting an even greater offer from Cyan. However, this is where it stops. Cyan has declared the improved proposal as its best and final offer, in the absence of a competing proposal. Its offer continues to have the support of MMA Offshore's directors.

WA1 Resources Ltd (ASX: WA1)

The WA1 Resources share price is down 8% to $18.96. This is likely to have been driven by profit taking following a whopping 27% gain on Wednesday. This was driven by news that its initial metallurgical testwork program on niobium mineralisation at the Luni deposit delivered strong results. Bell Potter was very pleased with the news and described it as a major de-risking event. It commented: "WA1 have passed a significant de-risking hurdle in confirming that niobium minerals from its Luni project can be concentrated via a two-stage floatation circuit with recoveries and concentrate grades in-line with dominant global producers." The broker responded by reiterating its speculative buy rating and lifting its price target to $28.00.

The post Why James Hardie, Mader Group, MMA Offshore, and WA1 shares are dropping today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.