Now could be the time to buy Mader Group Ltd (ASX: MAD) shares.
That's the view of analysts at Bell Potter, which have just upgraded the ASX All Ords stock.
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What is the broker saying about this ASX All Ords stock?
Bell Potter notes that this specialised contract labour provider's shares have pulled back recently, which it believes has created a buying opportunity. Especially given its belief that the company is poised to benefit from favourable industry conditions both at home and in North America. It said:
The Department of Industry, Science and Resources updated its Australian iron ore production outlook (Dec'25), forecasting CAGR of 2.8% over FY25-28 (prev. 2.5%). Delivery of this growth by industry is a major tailwind for MAD's core Heavy Mobile Equipment and Infrastructure Maintenance service offerings. FY26TD (JulNov'25) WA wholesale diesel consumption was up 2.2% YoY, with a record observed in Oct'25.
WA wholesale diesel consumption correlates very strongly with WA iron ore production. Lastly, the latest financial disclosures of OEMs (Sep'25 quarter) outlined sales and order intake were broadly flat and modestly up, respectively.
Over in North America, Bell Potter believes the ASX All Ords stock could be well-placed for new contract wins. It adds:
Several indicators point to a favourable environment for securing new business across the region. Firstly, our proxy for USA mining complex activity has progressively improved since the 2024 elections, with the index up 4.1% YoY for the period Jul-Nov'25. Secondly, in Canada, MAD's key markets have seen strong YoY production growth over Jul-Oct'25: 4.4% for coal; 15.9% for copper; 10.8% for lime; and 3.0% for oil sands (hard rock).
Lastly, regional OEMs and dealers have generally seen stable-to-improving YoY growth in their respective Product Sales businesses, indicating miner commitments to maintaining and growing fleet. Large Canadian mining dealers have reported mid-single digit to mid-teens YoY revenue growth for their respective Product Support divisions over the Jun'25 and Sep'25 quarters.
Upgraded
In light of the above and recent share price weakness, the broker has upgraded Mader's shares to a buy rating and $9.00 price target.
Based on its current share price of $7.77, this implies potential upside of 16% for investors over the next 12 months.
Bell Potter also expects a modest 1% dividend yield in FY 2026, lifting the total potential return to approximately 17%.
Commenting on the ASX All Ords stock's recommendation upgrade, the broker said:
We upgrade our Recommendation to Buy. The recent retracement in MAD's share price offers investors a more attractive risk-reward proposition, with 17.2% TSR implied by our $9.00/sh Target Price. We maintain the view that consensus expectations are conservative (FY26e NPAT of $67.6m; BPe $69.6m; NPAT guidance >$65.0m). Disclosure of MAD's next 5-year strategy represents a near-term catalyst.
