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Author Bio
Grace is an investment writer and research contributor with hands-on experience analysing listed companies, financial results, market trends, and long-term investment opportunities.
Her work focuses on making complex financial ideas clear, practical, and engaging for everyday investors. She has a strong interest in equity markets, business fundamentals, long-term investing, and the role quality companies and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can play in wealth creation over time.
Grace brings a detail-oriented and analytical approach to her writing, supported by her current studies in a Bachelor of Business, majoring in Economics, Finance and Trade. She also brings real-world experience from customer-focused and target-driven environments, which has helped shape her disciplined, deadline-focused approach to research and communication.
Areas of Expertise
ASX-listed companies
Global equities
ETFs
Fundamental analysis
Company earnings
Financial reports
Long-term investing
Compounding
Growth investing
Market trends
Investor education
Education
Grace is currently studying a Bachelor of Business, majoring in Economics, Finance and Trade.
Favourite Investment Quote
“Long ago, Ben Graham taught me that ‘Price is what you pay; value is what you get.”
— Warren Buffett
Published
Finding good value on the ASX isn't always as simple as looking for shares trading on low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios.
A company might look cheap today, but if its profits are expected to fall over the next few years, that valuation can quickly become less attractive.
Equally, a company trading at a premium could turn out to be a bargain if its earnings grow strongly enough.
With that in mind, I've compared the valuations and growth forecasts of five popular ASX shares to see where I would invest $10,000 today.
And after looking at the numbers, there are some clear differences. Here's what I found.
I'll start with a company I wouldn't be buying right now.
Fortescue shares are trading around $14.40 on Wednesday, down from a 52-week high of $23.38, which might look like good value for one of the world's largest iron ore producers.
The company has an excellent cost position, and its FY26 results demonstrated its ability to generate substantial cash, even while investing in new projects.
However, I have some concerns about its earnings outlook.
In FY26, Fortescue generated underlying earnings per share of $1.66. According to current CommSec consensus forecasts, that figure is expected to fall to around $1.05 in FY27 and remain close to that level through FY29.
That would leave earnings approximately 34% below FY26 levels by FY29, which I calculate to represent an annualised decline of around 13%.
And while the shares trade on a modest 13.7 times forecast FY27 earnings, I don't think that's especially cheap given the outlook.
Dividends are also expected to decline considerably from the $1.08 per share paid in FY26, with analysts forecasting around 68 cents annually over the next three years.
This would still provide a respectable dividend yield, but the prospects for capital growth look less convincing to me.
Fortescue could certainly outperform if iron ore prices strengthen or its investments deliver better-than-expected returns. However, with $10,000 to invest, I would prefer ASX shares where the earnings outlook is more encouraging.
Where would I invest instead?
The remaining four companies offer some interesting alternatives. But two stand out to me for their longer-term growth potential.
One is forecast to deliver earnings growth of approximately 19% annually through FY29, while another has existing customer contracts that management believes could eventually generate more than $1 billion in annual operating earnings.
I think both deserve serious consideration at their current valuations. Here's how the numbers compare and where I would put my money.
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